How does coal price drive up inflation? Reexamining the relationship between coal price and general price level in China
How does coal price drive up inflation? Reexamining the relationship between coal price and general price level in China
复制标题
煤炭价格如何推高通胀？
DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2016.06.001
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发表时间：
2016-06
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Chen Zhan-Ming
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guo Jin;Zheng Xinye;Chen Zhan-Ming
由于以煤炭为主的能源结构，中国目前面临煤炭价格不稳定带来的重大经济不确定性。本文通过区分煤炭价格上涨和下跌对经济传导的不对称效应，重新审视我国煤炭价格与物价总水平的关系。使用 98 年 6 月至 2014 年 9 月的每月时间序列数据，通过向量自回归模型、格兰杰因果关系检验和脉冲响应函数分析来研究不对称效应。结果显示，煤炭价格负变化对通胀的影响比正变化更显着。短期内，通胀对煤炭价格冲击的反应非常突然，但随着时间的推移，影响会迅速消退。累计煤炭价格每上涨1%，将带动CPI和PPI分别上涨0.04%和0.12%；煤炭价格每下跌1%，将分别带动CPI和PPI下降0.08%和0.17%。煤炭价格变化与PPI、CPI的联动被证明是价格冲击的主要传导渠道。初期通胀效应较强，但后期通胀效应减弱，因为PPI对CPI的传导效应较小，这证实了PPI比CPI对煤炭价格变化的反应更敏感。就政策影响而言，如何避免总体价格水平的剧烈波动是近期能源市场改革、建立绿色财政体系等议程的主要关注点。
Due to the coal-dominated energy structure, China is currently facing significant economic uncertainties brought forward by instability of coal price. By separating the asymmetric effects that how upward and downward coal price changes pass through to the economy, this paper reexamines the relationship between coal price and general price level in China. The asymmetric effects are investigated via vector autoregression models, Granger Causality tests, and impulse response function analyses using the monthly time series data from Jun-98 to Sep-14. Results show negative coal price change presents more significant impact on inflation than positive one. The inflation responses very abruptly to coal price shock in the short run, but the impact regresses rapidly along time. Accumulatively, a 1% increase of coal price will push CPI and PPI up by 0.04% and 0.12%, while a 1% decrease of coal price will pull them down by 0.08% and 0.17%, respectively. The linkage among coal price change, PPI, and CPI is demonstrated as the main transmission channel of price shock. The inflationary effect is strong in the initial stage, but will be weakened in the later stage since the pass through effect from PPI to CPI is tiny, which confirms PPI is more responsive than CPI to coal price change. For policy implications, how to avoid extreme volatility in general price level is a major concern of recent agendas such as reforming energy market and building green fiscal system.
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影响因子：
12.8
作者：
Liu, Ming-Hua;Margaritis, Dimitris;Zhang, Yang
通讯作者：
Zhang, Yang
DOI：
10.2307/2233138
发表时间：
1986-05
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
M. Bruno;J. Sachs
通讯作者：
M. Bruno;J. Sachs
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2487105
发表时间：
2014-08
期刊：
Institutions & Transition Economics: Macroeconomic Issues eJournal
影响因子：
--
作者：
Zhongxiang Zhang
通讯作者：
Zhongxiang Zhang
影响因子：
12.8
作者：
Rebeca Jiménez‐Rodríguez
通讯作者：
Rebeca Jiménez‐Rodríguez
DOI：
10.1016/s0378-4371(02)01025-7
发表时间：
2002-12
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
H. Berument;Hakan Taşçi
通讯作者：
H. Berument;Hakan Taşçi