ESTIMATION OF THYROID RADIATION DOSES FOR THE HANFORD THYROID DISEASE STUDY: RESULTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR STATISTICAL POWER OF THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALYSES
ESTIMATION OF THYROID RADIATION DOSES FOR THE HANFORD THYROID DISEASE STUDY: RESULTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR STATISTICAL POWER OF THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALYSES
复制标题
汉福德甲状腺疾病研究的甲状腺辐射剂量估计：流行病学分析的统计功效的结果和意义
作者：
K. Kopecky;S. Davis;Thomas E. Hamilton;Mark S Saporito;L. Onstad
华盛顿州东部、俄勒冈州东北部和爱达荷州西部的居民从1944年到1972年，特别是在20世纪40年代末和50年代初，都暴露在汉福德核设施运行释放到大气中的131 - i中。本文描述了汉福德甲状腺疾病研究中3,440名可评估参与者的甲状腺估计剂量，该研究调查了1944-1957年期间暴露于汉福德放射性碘的人的甲状腺发病率是否增加。参与者在1940-1946年间出生，他们的母亲生活在华盛顿州的本顿、富兰克林、沃拉沃拉、亚当斯、奥卡诺根、费里或史蒂文斯县。只要有可能，就对参与者早期生活有直接了解的人（最好是参与者的母亲）进行访谈，了解参与者的个人剂量决定特征（居住史、食物、牛奶和奶制品的来源和数量、自制食品和奶制品的生产和加工技术）。如果没有采访对象可用，则使用默认信息。甲状腺剂量是用汉福德环境剂量重建项目开发的计算机程序“环境放射性核素个体剂量计算”（CIDER）估计的。CIDER提供了100组剂量来表示估计的不确定性。这些集合不是为每个参与者独立产生的，而是反映了参与者共有特征的不确定性的影响。估计剂量（每位参与者100次实现的中位数）范围从0.0029毫戈瑞到2823毫戈瑞，平均值和中位数分别为174毫戈瑞和97毫戈瑞。估计剂量的分布为汉福德甲状腺疾病研究提供了足够的统计能力来检验甲状腺结果与汉福德131I暴露之间的剂量-反应关系。
Residents of eastern Washington, northeastern Oregon, and western Idaho were exposed to 131I released into the atmosphere from operations at the Hanford Nuclear Site from 1944 through 1972, especially in the late 1940’s and early 1950’s. This paper describes the estimated doses to the thyroid glands of the 3,440 evaluable participants in the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study, which investigated whether thyroid morbidity was increased in people exposed to radioactive iodine from Hanford during 1944–1957. The participants were born during 1940–1946 to mothers living in Benton, Franklin, Walla Walla, Adams, Okanogan, Ferry, or Stevens Counties in Washington State. Whenever possible someone with direct knowledge of the participant’s early life (preferably the participant’s mother) was interviewed about the participant’s individual dose-determining characteristics (residence history, sources and quantities of food, milk, and milk products consumed, production and processing techniques for home-grown food and milk products). Default information was used if no interview respondent was available. Thyroid doses were estimated using the computer program Calculation of Individual Doses from Environmental Radionuclides (CIDER) developed by the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project. CIDER provided 100 sets of doses to represent uncertainty of the estimates. These sets were not generated independently for each participant, but reflected the effects of uncertainties in characteristics shared by participants. Estimated doses (medians of each participant’s 100 realizations) ranged from 0.0029 mGy to 2823 mGy, with mean and median of 174 and 97 mGy, respectively. The distribution of estimated doses provided the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study with sufficient statistical power to test for dose-response relationships between thyroid outcomes and exposure to Hanford’s 131I.