Cost benefit analysis of 20 mph zones in London
Cost benefit analysis of 20 mph zones in London
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伦敦 20 英里每小时区域的成本效益分析
作者：
Rebecca Steinbach;J. Cairns;C. Grundy;Phil Edwards
有证据表明，20英里/小时区域是减少城市地区道路交通事故伤亡的有效干预措施。 该分析比较了伦敦高伤亡和低伤亡地区20 mph区域干预的建设成本与5年和10年时间范围内避免的伤亡价值。 进行概率敏感性分析，以量化与模型参数相关的结果中的不确定性。结果表明，净现值（NPV）为18 947英镑（90%可信限度-75 252英镑至82 021英镑2005年价格），10年后为67 306英镑（-29 157英镑至137 890英镑），当20英里/小时区域实施时，每公里道路有一人或多人伤亡。 从我们的模型的模拟表明，“阈值的伤亡”，其中NPV成为积极的使用10年的时间范围是0.7伤亡每公里。
Evidence suggests that 20 mph zones are an effective intervention to reduce casualties from road traffic crashes in urban areas. This analysis compares the costs of construction of the 20 mph zone intervention in high and low casualty areas in London to the value of casualties avoided over 5 and 10 year time horizons. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to quantify uncertainty in the results associated with model parameters. Results indicate a net present value (NPV) of £18 947 (90% credible limits −£75 252 to £82 021 2005 prices) after 5 years and £67 306 (£−29 157 to £137 890) after 10 years when 20 mph zones are implemented in areas with one or more casualty per kilometre of road. Simulations from our model suggest that the ‘threshold of casualties’ where NPVs become positive using a 10 year time horizon is 0.7 casualties per kilometre.