Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918-1920 "Spanish" influenza pandemic
Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918-1920 "Spanish" influenza pandemic
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DOI：
10.1353/bhm.2002.0022
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发表时间：
2002-03-01
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
Mueller, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Johnson, NPAS;Mueller, J
1918- 1920年的流感大流行一般被认为分三波发生，始于1918年北部的春季和夏季。然而，这种三波的模式并不是普遍的：在一些地方，流感似乎一直持续到1920年或在1920年再次出现。流感发病率和死亡率的记录统计数字很可能被严重低估。这些数据的局限性可能包括未登记、缺失记录、误诊和非医疗证明，并且在不同地点之间也可能差异很大。进一步的研究表明，对这一流行病的全球估计死亡率的不断向上修正，1920年的计算结果接近2 150万。1991年的一篇论文将死亡率修正为2470万至3930万之间。这篇论文表明，这一数字约为5000万。然而，必须承认，即使是这个庞大的数字也可能大大低于实际死亡人数，可能被低估了百分之百。
The influenza pandemic of 1918-20 is recognized as having generally taken place in three waves, starting in the northern spring and summer of 1918. This pattern of three waves, however, was not universal: in some locations influenza seems to have persisted into or returned in 1920. The recorded statistics of influenza morbidity and mortality are likely to be a significant understatement. Limitations of these data can include nonregistration, missing records, misdiagnosis, and nonmedical certification, and may also vary greatly between locations. Further research has seen the consistent upward revision of the estimated global mortality of the pandemic, which a 1920s calculation put in the vicinity of 21.5 million. A 1991 paper revised the mortality as being in the range 24.7-39.3 million. This paper suggests that it was of the order of 50 million. However, it must be acknowledged that even this vast figure may be substantially lower than the real toll, perhaps as much as 100 percent understated.