A model comparison approach shows stronger support for economic models of fertility decline
A model comparison approach shows stronger support for economic models of fertility decline
复制标题
模型比较方法显示对生育率下降的经济模型更有力的支持
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
N. Alam
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Shenk;M. Towner;Howard C. Kress;N. Alam
人口结构转型是一个持续的全球现象，高生育率和死亡率被低生育率和死亡率所取代。尽管人们对这种转变的原因，特别是生育率下降的原因非常感兴趣，但推动这种转变的根本机制仍有很多争论。文献中充斥着相互竞争的理论，包括因果模型，强调（i）死亡率和外在风险，（ii）投资于自身和子女的经济成本和收益，以及（iii）低生育率社会规范的文化传播。然而，区分模型需要比迄今为止发表的更全面、更好的对照研究。我们使用详细的人口数据，从最近的实地考察，以确定哪些模型产生的快速，最近的人口结构转变在孟加拉国农村最有力的解释。为了严格比较模型，我们使用基于证据的统计方法，使用来自似然理论的模型选择技术。这种方法使我们能够量化数据提供给替代模型的相对证据，即使模型预测并不相互排斥。结果表明，生育率，无论是总生育率或存活的孩子，是最好的解释模型，强调经济因素和相关的父母投资的动机。我们的研究结果还表明模型之间的重要协同作用，涉及近期人口转变的速度和程度的多个因果途径。
The demographic transition is an ongoing global phenomenon in which high fertility and mortality rates are replaced by low fertility and mortality. Despite intense interest in the causes of the transition, especially with respect to decreasing fertility rates, the underlying mechanisms motivating it are still subject to much debate. The literature is crowded with competing theories, including causal models that emphasize (i) mortality and extrinsic risk, (ii) the economic costs and benefits of investing in self and children, and (iii) the cultural transmission of low-fertility social norms. Distinguishing between models, however, requires more comprehensive, better-controlled studies than have been published to date. We use detailed demographic data from recent fieldwork to determine which models produce the most robust explanation of the rapid, recent demographic transition in rural Bangladesh. To rigorously compare models, we use an evidence-based statistical approach using model selection techniques derived from likelihood theory. This approach allows us to quantify the relative evidence the data give to alternative models, even when model predictions are not mutually exclusive. Results indicate that fertility, measured as either total fertility or surviving children, is best explained by models emphasizing economic factors and related motivations for parental investment. Our results also suggest important synergies between models, implicating multiple causal pathways in the rapidity and degree of recent demographic transitions.