Learning, confidence, and business cycles
Learning, confidence, and business cycles
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.01.010
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发表时间：
2021-02-10
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Saijo, Hikaru
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ilut, Cosmin;Saijo, Hikaru
我们认为，信息积累提供了一种定量上成功的传播机制，它挑战并实证地改进了具有许多名义和实际刚性的传统新凯恩斯模型。特别是，我们建立了一个易于处理的异质企业商业周期模型，在该模型中，企业面临着关于其盈利能力的奈特不确定性，并通过生产来学习。不确定性和经济活动之间的反馈将基本面冲击映射为一个似乎是顺周期的均衡信心过程，产生由需求冲击驱动的协同运动、放大和驼峰状的动态、劳动力、无风险和风险资产均衡条件中的反周期相关楔形，以及逆周期企业水平和预测的总体分散。(C)2020爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
We argue that information accumulation provides a quantitatively successful propagation mechanism that challenges and empirically improves on the conventional New Keynesian models with many nominal and real rigidities. In particular, we build a tractable heterogeneous-firm business cycle model where firms face Knightian uncertainty about their profitability and learn it through production. The feedback between uncertainty and economic activity maps fundamental shocks into an as if procyclical equilibrium confidence process, generating co-movement driven by demand shocks, amplified and hump-shaped dynamics, countercyclical correlated wedges in the equilibrium conditions for labor, risk-free and risky assets, and countercyclical firm-level and aggregate dispersion of forecasts. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.