Importance of antecedent environmental conditions in modeling species distributions
Importance of antecedent environmental conditions in modeling species distributions
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/ecog.02925
复制
发表时间：
2018-05
期刊：
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
M. Ryo;C. Yoshimura;Y. Iwasaki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Ryo;C. Yoshimura;Y. Iwasaki
虽然物种分布可以在意想不到的短时间内发生变化，但大多数物种分布模型（SDM）仅使用长期平均环境条件来解释物种分布。我们的目的是证明的重要性，将先前的环境条件纳入SDMs相比，长期平均的环境条件。我们模拟的存在/不存在的18种鱼类捕获的108个采样事件沿着50公里长的相模河在日本整个20世纪90年代（1至4次，每个网站在45个网站）。我们构建并比较了两种类型的SDM：1）仅使用长期平均（10年）环境条件的传统模型; 2）将采样事件（先行条件）前2年的环境条件与与生活史阶段相关的长期平均值结合在一起的拟议模型。这些模型都包括地貌，水文和采样条件作为预测因子。应用随机森林算法对预测因子的相对重要性进行建模和量化。对于7个物种，前期水文条件比长期平均水文条件更重要。此外，两种低流行率的分布不能使用长期平均水文条件预测，而只能使用前期水文条件。最后，结合与生活史阶段在适当的时间尺度的先行环境因素，可以更好地解释物种分布的变化，随着时间的推移。
Although species distributions can change in an unexpectedly short period of time, most species distribution models (SDMs) use only long-term averaged environmental conditions to explain species distributions. We aimed to demonstrate the importance of incorporating antecedent environmental conditions into SDMs in comparison to long-term averaged environmental conditions. We modeled the presence/absence of 18 fish species captured across 108 sampling events along a 50-km length of the Sagami River in Japan throughout the 1990s (one to four times per site at 45 sites). We constructed and compared the two types of SDMs: 1) a conventional model that uses only long-term averaged (10-yr) environmental conditions; and 2) a proposed model that incorporates environmental conditions 2 yr prior to a sampling event (antecedent conditions) together with long-term averages linked to life-history stages. These models both included geomorphological, hydrological, and sampling conditions as predictors. A random forest algorithm was applied for modeling and quantifying the relative importance of the predictors. For seven species, antecedent hydrological conditions were more important than the long-term averaged hydrological conditions. Furthermore, the distributions of two species with low prevalence could not be predicted using long-term averaged hydrological conditions but only using antecedent hydrological conditions. In conclusion, incorporating antecedent environmental factors linked with life-history stages at appropriate time scales can better explain changes in species distribution through time.