Elevated risk of tropical cyclone precipitation and pluvial flood in Houston under global warming
Elevated risk of tropical cyclone precipitation and pluvial flood in Houston under global warming
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac1e3d
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发表时间：
2021-09-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Quiring, Steven M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhu, Laiyin;Emanuel, Kerry;Quiring, Steven M.
热带气旋 (TC) 引发的洪涝是沿海社区最关心的问题之一。我们以休斯顿为例，通过将模型比对项目第六阶段模型中的缩小规模的热带气旋与物理水文模型相结合，证明了在未来变暖的世界中，热带气旋降雨和洪水的风险将显着升高。我们发现，较慢的TC转移速度、更频繁的停滞、较高的TC频率和降雨率增加是TC降雨风险和洪水风险增加的主要原因。热带气旋洪水风险的增加幅度大于降雨量。在全球变暖的背景下，城市化程度较高的较小流域特别容易受到热带气旋洪水未来变化的影响。
Pluvial floods generated by tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the major concerns for coastal communities. Choosing Houston as an example, we demonstrate that there will be significantly elevated risk of TC rainfall and flood in the future warming world by coupling downscaled TCs from Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models with physical hydrological models. We find that slower TC translation speed, more frequent stalling, greater TC frequency, and increased rain rate are major contributors to increased TC rainfall risk and flood risk. The TC flood risk increases more than the rainfall. Smaller watersheds with a high degree of urbanization are particularly vulnerable to future changes in TC floods in a warming world.