Determination of original infection source of H7N9 avian influenza by dynamical model.
Determination of original infection source of H7N9 avian influenza by dynamical model.
复制标题
动力学模型确定H7N9禽流感原始感染源
DOI：
10.1038/srep04846
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发表时间：
2014-05-02
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Huang B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang J;Jin Z;Sun GQ;Sun XD;Wang YM;Huang B
H7N9是中国新发现的病毒，在禽类和人之间传播。尽管H7N9尚未引发大规模疫情，但2013年下半年的复发使控制传播变得至关重要。人们认为，最有效的控制措施是定位原始感染源，切断与人类的感染源。然而，新病毒的原始感染源和内部传播机制尚不完全清楚。为了确定H7N9的原始感染源，我们建立了候鸟、留鸟、家禽和人口的动力学模型，将候鸟、留鸟、家禽分别视为H7N9的原始感染源，以符合2013年疫情的真实动态。通过比较数据拟合结果和相应的Akaike信息准则(AIC)值，我们得出候鸟最有可能是原始感染源的结论。此外，我们还得到了家禽的基本繁殖数，并对一些参数进行了敏感性分析。
H7N9, a newly emerging virus in China, travels among poultry and human. Although H7N9 has not aroused massive outbreaks, recurrence in the second half of 2013 makes it essential to control the spread. It is believed that the most effective control measure is to locate the original infection source and cut off the source of infection from human. However, the original infection source and the internal transmission mechanism of the new virus are not totally clear. In order to determine the original infection source of H7N9, we establish a dynamical model with migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry and human population and view migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry as original infection source respectively to fit the true dynamics during the 2013 pandemic. By comparing the date fitting results and corresponding Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values, we conclude that migrant birds are most likely the original infection source. In addition, we obtain the basic reproduction number in poultry and carry out sensitivity analysis of some parameters.