European trade patterns after the transition
European trade patterns after the transition
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转型后的欧洲贸易格局
DOI：
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发表时间：
1991
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Oleh Havrylyshyn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Oleh Havrylyshyn
本文只关注贸易的地理方向。它采用一种相当传统的重力模型技术来回答以下问题：如果东欧和中欧（欧洲经委会）的贸易是由影响市场经济的相同因素决定的，那么它们的贸易地理格局将是什么？它由以下部分组成：(a)对这个问题的一般性介绍和文件的目标；(b)对以非社会主义国家为样本的模型和估计结果的介绍；(c)关于欧洲经委会模拟的报告。本文最后预测了贸易模式的巨大转变，并讨论了这种转变的影响。
This paper concentrates on geographic direction of trade only. It applies a fairly conventional gravity model technique to answer the question: What would be the geographic pattern of trade of East and Central Europe (ECE) if their trade were determined by the same factors as those that affect market economies? It consists of the following sections: (a) a general introduction to this question and the paper's objectives; (b) a presentation of the model and the estimation results for a sample of non-socialist countries; and (c) a report on the ECE simulations. The paper concludes by predicting a dramatic shift in trade patterns and discusses the implications of such a shift.