Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries' climate progress
Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries' climate progress
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-021-01033-6
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发表时间：
2021-04-26
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Popp, Alexander
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Grassi, Giacomo;Stehfest, Elke;Popp, Alexander
综合评估模型的缓解路径描述了将全球变暖保持在特定温度限制以下的未来排放，并与各国集体温室气体(GHG)减排承诺进行了比较。这是评估缓解进展和通报《巴黎协定》规定的排放目标所必需的。然而，目前，用IAM估算的全球土地利用通量与各国温室气体清单估算的全球土地利用通量之间存在约5.5 GtCO(2)yr(-1)的不匹配。在这里，我们提出了一种“Rosetta stone”调整，将IAM的土地使用缓解途径转换为与温室气体清单更具可比性的估计。这不会改变最初的脱碳途径，但会重新分配部分土地汇，使其与温室气体清单保持一致。在1.5摄氏度或2摄氏度的净零限制之前，调整后的累积排放量比最初的IAM路径减少了120-192 GtCO(2)。应考虑到这些差异，以确保准确评估《巴黎协定》的进展情况。
Mitigation pathways by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) describe future emissions that keep global warming below specific temperature limits and are compared with countries' collective greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction pledges. This is needed to assess mitigation progress and inform emission targets under the Paris Agreement. Currently, however, a mismatch of similar to 5.5 GtCO(2) yr(-1) exists between the global land-use fluxes estimated with IAMs and from countries' GHG inventories. Here we present a 'Rosetta stone' adjustment to translate IAMs' land-use mitigation pathways to estimates more comparable with GHG inventories. This does not change the original decarbonization pathways, but reallocates part of the land sink to be consistent with GHG inventories. Adjusted cumulative emissions over the period until net zero for 1.5 or 2 degrees C limits are reduced by 120-192 GtCO(2) relative to the original IAM pathways. These differences should be taken into account to ensure an accurate assessment of progress towards the Paris Agreement.