Changes in breast cancer incidence and mortality in middle-aged and elderly women in 28 countries with Caucasian majority populations
Changes in breast cancer incidence and mortality in middle-aged and elderly women in 28 countries with Caucasian majority populations
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DOI：
10.1093/annonc/mdm593
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发表时间：
2008-05-01
影响因子：
50.5
通讯作者：
Autier, P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hery, C.;Ferlay, J.;Autier, P.
背景资料：乳腺X线筛查和绝经期激素治疗主要提供给50-69岁的妇女。方法：在28个欧洲血统的国家，我们使用联合点回归分析从1960年到去年的可用数据量化乳腺癌发病率和死亡率的变化。结果：自1960年以来，所有国家的发病率通常以每年2%-3%的速度增长，主要是50-69岁的妇女，在8个国家，其发病率超过了70岁及以上妇女的发病率。在10个国家中，在观察的最后几年，70岁以上妇女的发病率明显下降，但下降幅度远远低于50-69岁年龄组的发病率上升幅度。在21世纪初，在大多数国家，50-69岁的妇女死亡率持续下降，每年下降2%，70岁或以上的妇女死亡率也出现平行下降。结论：在21世纪初，在一些国家，中年妇女乳腺癌的发病率已高于老年妇女。如果趋势保持不变，同样的现象很可能在其他国家发生。
Background: Mammography screening and menopause hormone therapy is essentially offered to women 50-69 years old.Methods: In 28 European ancestry countries, we quantified changes in breast cancer incidence and mortality using a joinpoint regression analysis from 1960 until last year of available data.Results: Since 1960, increases in incidence often in the order of 2%-3% per year occurred in all countries, mainly in women 50-69 years old whose incidence in eight countries surpassed the incidence in women 70 years old and more. In 10 countries, a decrease in incidence in women >= 70 years was noticeable in the last years of observation, but the magnitude of this decrease was far from matching the magnitude of the increases observed in the 50-69 age-group. In the beginning of years 2000s, a persistent decrease in mortality of similar to 2% per year was observed in women 50-69 years old in most countries and parallel declines in mortality were observed in women 70 years or more.Conclusions: In years 2000s, in a number of countries, the incidence of breast cancer has become greater in middle-aged women than in older women. If trends remain unchanged, the same phenomenon is likely to happen in other countries.