Turnout Bias in Postelection Surveys: Political Involvement, Survey Participation, and Vote Overreporting
Turnout Bias in Postelection Surveys: Political Involvement, Survey Participation, and Vote Overreporting
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选后调查中的投票率偏差：政治参与、调查参与和投票高报
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Andreas C. Goldberg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Sciarini;Andreas C. Goldberg
投票率偏差是选后调查的一个典型缺陷。这有双重原因：在调查对象中实际选民的比例过高，以及实际不投票的人虚报选票。以前的研究主要集中在后者，即测量偏差，而未能解决前者，即无反应偏差。然而，投票率通常是一个在反应倾向和测量误差之间可能存在联系的主题，因为与政治参与有关的因素可能会影响调查参与和误报。为了考虑到这一联系，我们采用了赫克曼选择模型，在该模型中，结果方程估计了以参与调查的概率为条件的虚报概率。我们将这样的模型应用于瑞士日内瓦州的一组独特的有效选票数据集，告知接受采访的个人和抽样但无法接受采访的个人的实际投票率。基于相同的数据，我们提出了一个解决方案，可以在没有关于非响应的信息的情况下纠正非响应偏差。将这一修正应用于美国的数据表明，不修正反应倾向确实可能导致对夸大报告的决定因素的不准确估计，并最终导致对投票率的不准确估计。
Turnout bias is a classic flaw of postelection surveys. It has a double cause: overrepresentation of actual voters among survey respondents and vote overreporting by actual nonvoters. Previous studies have focused on the latter, measurement bias, and have failed to address the former, nonresponse bias. However, turnout is typically a topic where there may be a link between response propensity and measurement error, as factors related to political involvement are likely to influence both survey participation and misreport. To take this link into account, we resort to a Heckman selection model in which the outcome equation estimates the probability of overreporting conditional on the probability of participation in the survey. We apply such a model to a unique data set of validated votes from the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, informing about the actual turnout of both individuals who were interviewed and individuals who were sampled but could not be interviewed. Based on the same data, we put forward a solution that may correct for the nonresponse bias in cases where information regarding nonresponse is not available. Applying this correction to U.S. data shows that not correcting for response propensity may indeed lead to inaccurate estimates of the determinants of overreporting and, ultimately, of turnout.
选后调查中选民代表性过高、选票误报和投票率偏差
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Munzert
通讯作者：
Munzert