Climate impacts on hydropower in Colombia: A multi-model assessment of power sector adaptation pathways
Climate impacts on hydropower in Colombia: A multi-model assessment of power sector adaptation pathways
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.057
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发表时间：
2019-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
van der Zwaan, Bob
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Arango-Aramburo, Santiago;Turner, Sean W. D.;van der Zwaan, Bob
气候变化可能会影响水的供应，从而影响世界许多地区的水力发电。在干旱地区，水力发电可能会受到损害，这就需要进行新的电力投资，否则就不必要了。在这项研究中，我们应用两个局部均衡模型(GCAM和TIAM-ECN)和两个一般均衡模型(MEG4C和菲尼克斯)来确定哥伦比亚在气候变化下电力部门适应的可能路径。我们采用了两个在未来30年恶化水力发电的GCM预测，并分别模拟了两种辐射强迫情景(RCP8.5和RCP4.5)。相对于哥伦比亚预计未来几十年的电力需求增长，水力发电的损失微乎其微。尽管如此，气候导致的水电损失必须通过替代技术的推广来补偿，这些技术在不同型号之间差别很大。当实施气候政策时(RCP4.5)，出现了三条不同的扩张路径：增加太阳能和风能(TIAM-ECN)；显著减少电力需求(菲尼克斯和MEG4C)；以及通过二氧化碳捕获和储存增加化石资源(GCAM)。我们表明，有必要探讨替代扩张途径之间的权衡/协同作用及其对其他部门(如水和土地)的潜在影响，并需要制定有效的政策来鼓励哥伦比亚采用这些途径。
Climate change is likely to affect water availability and therefore hydropower generation in many regions of the world. In drying regions, hydropower generation may be impaired, creating a need for new power investments that would otherwise have been unnecessary. In this study we apply two partial equilibrium models (GCAM and TIAM-ECN) and two general equilibrium models (MEG4C and Phoenix) to identify possible pathways of power sector adaptation for Colombia under climate change. We adopt two GCM projections that deteriorate hydropower generation over the next three decades, and simulate each for two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). Relative to Colombia's projected power demand growth over the coming decades, losses in hydropower generation are marginal. Nonetheless, climate-driven losses in hydropower must be compensated by alternative technologies'expansion, which vary significantly across models. When climate policy is implemented (RCP4.5), three distinct expansion pathways emerge: increased solar and wind energy (TIAM-ECN); significant power demand reductions (Phoenix and MEG4C); and increased fossil resources with carbon dioxide capture and storage (GCAM). We show the need to explore the tradeoffs/synergies among alternative expansion pathways and their potential impacts on other sectors (e.g. water and land), and for effective policies to incentivize their adoption in Colombia.