COVID-19 and the Drug Overdose Crisis: Uncovering the Deadliest Months in the United States, January-July 2020
COVID-19 and the Drug Overdose Crisis: Uncovering the Deadliest Months in the United States, January-July 2020
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DOI：
10.2105/ajph.2021.306256
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发表时间：
2021-07-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Akre, Samir
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Friedman, Joseph;Akre, Samir
目标。以确定美国新冠肺炎大流行期间每月与药物有关的过量死亡增加的幅度。方法：研究方法。我们利用了来自疾病控制和预防中心的临时记录，这些记录是以滚动12个月总额的形式提供的，这有助于平滑，但可能会掩盖与大流行相关的过量死亡人数的激增。我们将这些滚动汇总与之前的月度数据交叉引用，以估计2020年1月至7月与药物相关的每月过量死亡率。我们量化了由报告延迟引起的历史错误，并估计了95%的经验预测区间(PI)。结果。我们发现，2020年5月有9192人(95%PI=8988,9397)死于药物过量--这是有记录以来死亡人数最多的一个月--比2019年5月增加了57.7%(95%PI=54.2%，61.2%)。大多数州都出现了大幅增长，西弗吉尼亚州、肯塔基州和田纳西州的增幅最高。我们观察到，12个月滚动汇总和每月大流行相关冲击之间的一致性较低。结论。在大流行期间，服药过量死亡率出现了前所未有的上升，突显了将月度数值与用于检测电击的平滑汇总一起提供的价值。对公共卫生的影响。美国吸毒过量危机的急剧恶化，需要在大流行应对期间重新投资于吸毒过量监测和预防，并推迟恢复工作。(我是J公共卫生。2021年；111(7)：1284-1291。Https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306256)
Objectives. To determine the magnitude of increases in monthly drug-related overdose mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Methods. We leveraged provisional records from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provided as rolling 12-month sums, which are helpful for smoothing, yet may mask pandemic-related spikes in overdose mortality. We cross-referenced these rolling aggregates with previous monthly data to estimate monthly drug-related overdose mortality for January through July 2020. We quantified historical errors stemming from reporting delays and estimated empirically derived 95% prediction intervals (PIs). Results. We found that 9192 (95% PI = 8988, 9397) people died from drug overdose in May 2020- making it the deadliest month on record-representing a 57.7% (95% PI = 54.2%, 61.2%) increase over May 2019. Most states saw large-magnitude increases, with the highest in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee. We observed low concordance between rolling 12-month aggregates and monthly pandemic-related shocks. Conclusions. Unprecedented increases in overdose mortality occurred during the pandemic, highlighting the value of presenting monthly values alongside smoothed aggregates for detecting shocks. Public Health Implications. Drastic exacerbations of the US overdose crisis warrant renewed investments in overdose surveillance and prevention during the pandemic response and postpandemic recovery efforts. (Am J Public Health. 2021;111(7):1284-1291. https://doi.org/10.2105/ AJPH.2021.306256)