Use of Integrated Modeling to Enhance Estimates of Population Dynamics Obtained from Limited Data
Use of Integrated Modeling to Enhance Estimates of Population Dynamics Obtained from Limited Data
复制标题
使用集成建模来增强从有限数据中获得的人口动态估计
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
R. Arlettaz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Schaub;O. Gimenez;A. Sierro;R. Arlettaz
摘要： 稀有和濒危物种的人口统计数据往往过于稀疏，无法以足够的精度估计生命率和种群规模，从而了解种群的增长和下降。然而，将不同来源的人口数据整合到一个统计模型中是有希望的。我们将贝叶斯综合种群模型应用于濒临灭绝的大马蹄蝠（Rhinolophus ferrumequinum）群体的人口统计数据。可用数据包括黄昏时从群落栖息处出现的亚成虫和成虫的数量、1991年至2005年的新生儿数量以及2004年至2005年亚成虫和成虫的重新捕获数据。性别之间的存活率没有差异，人口统计率在不同时间段内保持恒定。大马蹄蝠是一种长寿物种，存活率高（第一年：0.49 [SD 0.06]；成虫：0.91 [SD 0.02]），但繁殖力低（0.74 [SD 0.12]）。年平均人口增长率为 4.4% (SD 0.1%)，2005 年该群体中有 92 只 (SD 10) 成虫。如果我们单独分析每个数据集，我们将无法估计繁殖力，对生存的估计会不太精确，对种群增长的估计也会有偏差。我们的结果表明，集成模型适合从有限的数据中获取关键的人口统计信息。
Abstract: Demographic data of rare and endangered species are often too sparse to estimate vital rates and population size with sufficient precision for understanding population growth and decline. Yet, the combination of different sources of demographic data into one statistical model holds promise. We applied Bayesian integrated population modeling to demographic data from a colony of the endangered greater horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum). Available data were the number of subadults and adults emerging from the colony roost at dusk, the number of newborns from 1991 to 2005, and recapture data of subadults and adults from 2004 and 2005. Survival rates did not differ between sexes, and demographic rates remained constant across time. The greater horseshoe bat is a long‐lived species with high survival rates (first year: 0.49 [SD 0.06]; adults: 0.91 [SD 0.02]) and low fecundity (0.74 [SD 0.12]). The yearly average population growth was 4.4% (SD 0.1%) and there were 92 (SD 10) adults in the colony in year 2005. Had we analyzed each data set separately, we would not have been able to estimate fecundity, the estimates of survival would have been less precise, and the estimate of population growth biased. Our results demonstrate that integrated models are suitable for obtaining crucial demographic information from limited data.