Signatures of Tibetan Plateau heating on Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability
Signatures of Tibetan Plateau heating on Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability
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DOI：
10.1002/jgrd.50124
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发表时间：
2013-02
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
B. Rajagopalan;P. Molnar
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Rajagopalan;P. Molnar
我们表明，这种加热（通过地表以上大气中湿静态能的月度估计来量化）与夏季季风降雨相关，但仅在季风季节的早期（5月20日至6月15日）和晚期（9月1日至10月15日）。主要季风季节（6月15日至8月31日）的相关性很小，不显著。
Despite recent challenges, conventional wisdom has held that heating over the Tibetan Plateau leads to increased Indian summer monsoon rainfall via enhancement of cross‐equatorial circulation aloft, and a concurrent strengthening of both the Somali Jet and westerly winds that bring moisture to southern India. We show that such heating, quantified by monthly estimates of moist static energy in the atmosphere just above the surface, correlates with summer monsoon rainfall, but only in the early (20 May to 15 June) and late (September 1 to 15 October) monsoon season. Correlations during the main monsoon season (15 June to 31 August) are small and insignificant. The positive correlations with early and late monsoon season, however, allow for heating over Tibet to modulate as much as ~30% of the total rainfall. Furthermore, we demonstrate that heating over Tibet is independent of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, so that together they explain a substantial portion of variability in the early and late season rainfall, providing potential predictability. These links may also explain the wet conditions over India during early Holocene time and provide a quantitative link between a rise of Tibet and stronger Somali Jet.