A stochastic movement simulator improves estimates of landscape connectivity
A stochastic movement simulator improves estimates of landscape connectivity
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DOI：
10.1890/14-1690.1
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发表时间：
2015-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Travis, J. M. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Coulon, A.;Aben, J.;Travis, J. M. J.
保护行动通常侧重于恢复或创建自然区域，旨在促进生物体在种群之间的移动。为了提高效率，这些行动需要基于对景观连通性的可靠估计或预测。虽然电路理论和最低成本路径 (LCP) 越来越多地用于估计连通性，但这些方法也存在经证明的局限性。我们将它们在预测遗传连通性方面的表现与基于简单的、基于个体的“随机运动模拟器”（SMS）的替代方法进行了比较。SMS 使用与 LCP 相同的景观表示和基于电路理论的估计（即成本面）来预测生物体的扩散，同时放松了关键的 LCP 假设，即个体对景观的全知性（通过结合感知范围）和个体的最优性 运动（通过在模拟运动中包含随机性）。三个估计器的表现是根据它们与两个具有对比运动能力的物种（卡巴尼斯绿布尔鸟，一种非洲热带森林鸟类和黑条蟾蜍，一种仅限于欧洲沙地和石南地区的两栖动物）的连通性遗传估计的相关程度来评估的。对于这两个物种，扩散模型和遗传数据之间的相关性很大 使用短信时更高。重要的是，结果还表明，使用 SMS 获得的改进对于景观空间分辨率的变化和感知范围模型参数的不确定性都是稳健的。将这种基于个人的方法与连通性研究领域的其他开发方法（例如图论）相结合，可以在更稳健的连通性指数和更有效的土地管理建议方面取得快速进展。
Conservation actions often focus on restoration or creation of natural areas designed to facilitate the movements of organisms among populations. To be efficient, these actions need to be based on reliable estimates or predictions of landscape connectivity. While circuit theory and least-cost paths (LCPs) are increasingly being used to estimate connectivity, these methods also have proven limitations. We compared their performance in predicting genetic connectivity with that of an alternative approach based on a simple, individual-based "stochastic movement simulator'' (SMS). SMS predicts dispersal of organisms using the same landscape representation as LCPs and circuit theory-based estimates (i.e., a cost surface), while relaxing key LCP assumptions, namely individual omniscience of the landscape (by incorporating perceptual range) and the optimality of individual movements (by including stochasticity in simulated movements). The performance of the three estimators was assessed by the degree to which they correlated with genetic estimates of connectivity in two species with contrasting movement abilities (Cabanis's Greenbul, an Afrotropical forest bird species, and natterjack toad, an amphibian restricted to European sandy and heathland areas). For both species, the correlation between dispersal model and genetic data was substantially higher when SMS was used. Importantly, the results also demonstrate that the improvement gained by using SMS is robust both to variation in spatial resolution of the landscape and to uncertainty in the perceptual range model parameter. Integration of this individual-based approach with other developing methods in the field of connectivity research, such as graph theory, can yield rapid progress towards more robust connectivity indices and more effective recommendations for land management.