Seasonality in Environment and Population Processes Alters Population Spatial Synchrony
Seasonality in Environment and Population Processes Alters Population Spatial Synchrony
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DOI：
10.1086/725804
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发表时间：
2023-10-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Shoemaker，Lauren G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Walter，Jonathan A.;Reuman，Daniel C.;Shoemaker，Lauren G.
人口空间同步性——人口在时间上的波动在不同地点之间相互关联的趋势——对元人口的稳定性和持久性来说是常见和重要的。空间同步性的一个常见原因，被称为莫兰效应，发生在人口对环境波动（如天气）的反应时，这些环境波动在空间上是相关的。虽然不同季节环境波动的空间同步性程度不同，不同季节发生不同的种群过程，但对种群空间同步性的影响是不确定的，因为先前的工作在很大程度上假设环境波动的空间同步性及其对种群的影响在年采样间隔内是一致的。利用理论模型研究了种群过程的季节性和环境驱动因素的空间同步性对种群空间同步性的影响。研究发现，人口的空间同步性不仅取决于环境驱动因素的空间同步性，还取决于环境波动在季节、局部和空间上的相关程度。此外，“快速”人口普查的同步测量可能无法准确反映一年中其他部分的同步。综上所述，忽略环境条件和种群过程的季节性对理解种群空间同步性及其驱动机制具有重要意义。
Population spatial synchrony—the tendency for temporal population fluctuations to be correlated across locations—is common and important to metapopulation stability and persistence. One common cause of spatial synchrony, termed the Moran effect, occurs when populations respond to environmental fluctuations, such as weather, that are correlated over space. Although the degree of spatial synchrony in environmental fluctuations can differ between seasons and different population processes occur in different seasons, the impact on population spatial synchrony is uncertain because prior work has largely assumed that the spatial synchrony of environmental fluctuations and their effect on populations are consistent over annual sampling intervals. We used theoretical models to examine how seasonality in population processes and the spatial synchrony of environmental drivers affect population spatial synchrony. We found that population spatial synchrony can depend not only on the spatial synchrony of environmental drivers but also on the degree to which environmental fluctuations are correlated across seasons, locally, and across space. Moreover, measurements of synchrony from “snapshot” population censuses may not accurately reflect synchrony during other parts of the year. Together, these results show that neglecting seasonality in environmental conditions and population processes is consequential for understanding population spatial synchrony and its driving mechanisms.