A mechanism for regional variations in snowpack melt under rising temperature
A mechanism for regional variations in snowpack melt under rising temperature
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-021-00996-w
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发表时间：
2021-03
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
A. Evan;I. Eisenman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Evan;I. Eisenman
随着地球变暖，预计每年春天山区积雪将逐渐融化。然而，对美国西部测量结果的分析表明，积雪消失的日期变化并不均匀：变暖1 °C，一些地区的积雪提前30天消失，而其他地区几乎没有变化。在这里，我们提出了一个理想的物理模型，它模拟了温度变化下积雪融化的时间，并用它来表明，这种观察到的积雪消失对变暖的敏感性差异是与年温度循环的正弦形状有关的机制造成的。将该模型应用于全球，我们发现，在均匀变暖的情况下，沿海地区、北极、美国西部、中欧和南美洲积雪消失的时间变化最快，北美和欧亚大陆北部内陆的变化要小得多。
As the planet warms, mountain snowpack is expected to melt progressively earlier each spring. However, analysis of measurements in the western United States shows that the change in the date when snowpack disappears is not uniform: for 1 °C of warming, snowpack disappears 30 days earlier in some regions, whereas there is almost no change in others. Here we present an idealized physical model that simulates the timing of snowpack melt under changing temperature and use it to show that this observed disparity in the sensitivity of snowpack disappearance to warming results from a mechanism related to the sinusoidal shape of the annual cycle of temperature. Applying this model globally, we show that under uniform warming the timing of snowpack disappearance will change most rapidly in coastal regions, the Arctic, the western United States, Central Europe and South America, with much smaller changes in the northern interiors of North America and Eurasia.