Seasonal impact-based mapping of compound hazards
Seasonal impact-based mapping of compound hazards
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/abbc3d
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发表时间：
2020-06
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
J. Hillier;R. S. Dixon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Hillier;R. S. Dixon
提出了基于影响的复合灾害季节性作图。它是务实的，确定了推动研究议程的现象，产生了与利益相关者相关的产出，并且可以应用于全球许多危害。举例来说，洪水和风的破坏可能同时发生，加剧了它们的共同影响，但雨季和多风季节结合的地方还没有被系统地绘制出来。在这里，基于季节性影响的冬季洪水和极端风的代用物被用于在1°× 1°分辨率下绘制这些灾害在600年内在欧洲各地之间的关联，这是在季节性后发数据中实现的。确定了增强-抑制相关性的成对区域（苏格兰、挪威），并表明这些区域是由地形对盛行西风风暴的增强降雨（或遮蔽）造成的。由于所使用的危害指标是根据损失进行校准的，因此地图显示了潜在的损害。
Impact-based, seasonal mapping of compound hazards is proposed. It is pragmatic, identifies phenomena to drive the research agenda, produces outputs relevant to stakeholders, and could be applied to many hazards globally. Illustratively, flooding and wind damage can co-occur, worsening their joint impact, yet where wet and windy seasons combine has not yet been systematically mapped. Here, seasonal impact-based proxies for wintertime flooding and extreme wind are used to map, at 1° × 1° resolution, the association between these hazards across Europe within 600 years as realized in seasonal hindcast data. Paired areas of enhanced-suppressed correlation are identified (Scotland, Norway), and are shown to be created by orographically-enhanced rainfall (or shelter) from prevailing westerly storms. As the hazard metrics used are calibrated to losses, the maps are indicative of the potential for damage.