Impacts of K-12 school reopening on the COVID-19 epidemic in Indiana, USA.
Impacts of K-12 school reopening on the COVID-19 epidemic in Indiana, USA.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100487
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发表时间：
2021-12
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Perkins TA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
España G;Cavany S;Oidtman R;Barbera C;Costello A;Lerch A;Poterek M;Tran Q;Wieler A;Moore S;Perkins TA
在美国，尽管SARS-CoV-2持续传播，但学校因COVID-19于二零二零年三月关闭，并于二零二零年八月重新开放。在当时恢复面对面教学的州，两个主要的未知数是学校的运营能力，这取决于选择远程教学的家庭比例，以及学校遵守口罩要求的情况，这取决于学生的合作和学校的执行情况。为了确定这些条件对印第安纳州全州COVID-19负担的影响，我们使用了一个基于代理的模型，该模型针对多种数据类型进行了校准和验证。使用该模型，我们量化了COVID-19对K-12学生、教师、他们的家庭和一般人群在三个学校运营能力水平（50%、75%和100%）和三个学校口罩依从性水平（50%、75%和100%）的替代情景下的负担。在学校远程运行的情况下，我们预计8月24日至12月31日期间全州有45，579人（95% CrI：14，109 - 132，546）感染，790人（95% CrI：176-1680）死亡。重新开放的学校达到100%的容量，50%的学校坚持戴口罩，导致感染和死亡人数分别按比例增加了42.9倍（95% CrI：41.3-44.3）和9.2倍（95% CrI：8.9-9.5）。相比之下，我们的研究结果表明，在50%的能力和100%的口罩坚持，感染和死亡人数分别为22%（95%CrI：16%-28%）和11%（95%CrI：5%-18%）比学校远程操作的情况高。在这一可能性范围内，我们发现高水平的学校运营能力（80- 95%）和中等水平的口罩依从性（40- 70%）导致模型行为与观察数据最一致。总之，这些结果强调了学校为社区利益采取预防措施的重要性。
In the United States, schools closed in March 2020 due to COVID-19 and began reopening in August 2020, despite continuing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. In states where in-person instruction resumed at that time, two major unknowns were the capacity at which schools would operate, which depended on the proportion of families opting for remote instruction, and adherence to face-mask requirements in schools, which depended on cooperation from students and enforcement by schools. To determine the impact of these conditions on the statewide burden of COVID-19 in Indiana, we used an agent-based model calibrated to and validated against multiple data types. Using this model, we quantified the burden of COVID-19 on K-12 students, teachers, their families, and the general population under alternative scenarios spanning three levels of school operating capacity (50 %, 75 %, and 100 %) and three levels of face-mask adherence in schools (50 %, 75 %, and 100 %). Under a scenario in which schools operated remotely, we projected 45,579 (95 % CrI: 14,109–132,546) infections and 790 (95 % CrI: 176–1680) deaths statewide between August 24 and December 31. Reopening at 100 % capacity with 50 % face-mask adherence in schools resulted in a proportional increase of 42.9 (95 % CrI: 41.3–44.3) and 9.2 (95 % CrI: 8.9–9.5) times that number of infections and deaths, respectively. In contrast, our results showed that at 50 % capacity with 100 % face-mask adherence, the number of infections and deaths were 22 % (95 % CrI: 16 %–28 %) and 11 % (95 % CrI: 5 %–18 %) higher than the scenario in which schools operated remotely. Within this range of possibilities, we found that high levels of school operating capacity (80–95 %) and intermediate levels of face-mask adherence (40–70 %) resulted in model behavior most consistent with observed data. Together, these results underscore the importance of precautions taken in schools for the benefit of their communities.
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