Changes in precipitation and temperature extremes in Central America and northern South America, 1961-2003 -: art. no. D23107
Changes in precipitation and temperature extremes in Central America and northern South America, 1961-2003 -: art. no. D23107
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DOI：
10.1029/2005jd006119
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发表时间：
2005-12-06
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Mayorga, R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aguilar, E;Peterson, TC;Mayorga, R
[1] 2004年11月，区域气候变化研讨会在危地马拉举行，目的是分析该地区极端气候的变化。来自中美洲和南美洲北部的科学家将各自国家气象站的长期日气温和降水时间序列带到了研讨会上。经过仔细的质量控制程序和同质性评估后，这些数据被用来计算 1961 年至 2003 年期间的一套气候变化指数。对这些指数的分析揭示了该地区总体变暖的趋势。极端温暖最高温度和最低温度的发生次数有所增加，而极端寒冷温度事件的发生次数则有所减少。尽管降水指数存在较大且预期的空间变异性，但表明虽然总量没有显着增加，但降雨事件正在加剧，潮湿和非常潮湿的天气的贡献正在扩大。温度和降水指数与北部和赤道大西洋和太平洋海面温度相关。然而，那些具有最大显着趋势的指数（温暖日子的百分比、降水强度和非常潮湿的日子的贡献）与厄尔尼诺 - 南方涛动的相关性较低。此外，降水指数与热带大西洋海面温度具有更高的相关性。
[1] In November 2004, a regional climate change workshop was held in Guatemala with the goal of analyzing how climate extremes had changed in the region. Scientists from Central America and northern South America brought long-term daily temperature and precipitation time series from meteorological stations in their countries to the workshop. After undergoing careful quality control procedures and a homogeneity assessment, the data were used to calculate a suite of climate change indices over the 1961 - 2003 period. Analysis of these indices reveals a general warming trend in the region. The occurrence of extreme warm maximum and minimum temperatures has increased while extremely cold temperature events have decreased. Precipitation indices, despite the large and expected spatial variability, indicate that although no significant increases in the total amount are found, rainfall events are intensifying and the contribution of wet and very wet days are enlarging. Temperature and precipitation indices were correlated with northern and equatorial Atlantic and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. However, those indices having the largest significant trends ( percentage of warm days, precipitation intensity, and contribution from very wet days) have low correlations to El Nino - Southern Oscillation. Additionally, precipitation indices show a higher correlation with tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures.