How to Identify Strategy Use and Adaptive Strategy Selection: The Crucial Role of Chance Correction in Weighted Compensatory Strategies
How to Identify Strategy Use and Adaptive Strategy Selection: The Crucial Role of Chance Correction in Weighted Compensatory Strategies
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如何识别策略使用和适应性策略选择：机会修正在加权补偿策略中的关键作用
DOI：
10.1002/bdm.1983
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
A. Glöckner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Marc Jekel;A. Glöckner
基于选择的模型比较是评估自适应策略选择模型的常用方法。我们发现，在这项工作的部分普遍存在的一个共同的方法选择使得很难得出关于人们实际上使用简化策略的频率的核心问题的合理结论（例如，快速和节俭的物流）以及它们是否适应性地在它们之间进行选择。从这项工作的结论是有偏见的，因为更复杂的加权补偿策略，如富兰克林的规则，被认为是快速和节俭的替代品的方式，导致系统低估的程度，他们依赖于指定具体来说，不纠正线索效度的机会水平的结果在一个重大的劣势加权补偿策略的常见做法。模型恢复模拟和对已发表数据的重新分析相应地表明，在著名研究中使用的各种环境中，对快速和节俭的生态学的依赖被高估了。此外，我们的研究结果表明，这种高估的幅度是偶然的环境结构，使战略选择模仿没有任何物质基础。因此，即使是完全理性的人也会被错误地归类为简单策略的适应性用户。我们建议，机会校正的实施加权补偿策略应包括在所有未来的研究调查使用的自适应策略，并认为全面重新分析以前的工作是必要的。版权所有© 2016约翰威利父子有限公司.
Model comparisons based on choices are a common method to assess adaptive strategy selection models. We show that one common methodological choice prevailing in parts of this work makes it hard to draw sound conclusions concerning the central questions of how often people indeed use simplified strategies (e.g., fast-and-frugal heuristics) and whether they select between them adaptively. Conclusions from this work are biased insofar that more complex weighted compensatory strategies, such as Franklin's Rule, that are considered alternatives to fast-and-frugal heuristics are specified in a way that leads to a systematic underestimation of the degree to which they are relied on. Specifically, the common practice of not correcting cue validities for chance level results in a substantial disadvantage for weighted compensatory strategies. Model recovery simulations and a reanalysis of published data correspondingly show overestimation of the reliance on fast-and-frugal heuristics for various environments used in prominent studies. Furthermore, our results indicate that the magnitude of this overestimation is contingent on the structure of the environment so that strategy selection is mimicked without any material basis. As a result, even completely rational individuals would be erroneously classified as adaptive users of simple strategies. We recommend that chance corrected implementations of weighted compensatory strategies should be included in all future studies investigating the usage of adaptive strategies and argue that comprehensive re-analyses of previous work are warranted. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.