Earth system models for regional environmental management of red tide: Prospects and limitations of current generation models and next generation development
Earth system models for regional environmental management of red tide: Prospects and limitations of current generation models and next generation development
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DOI：
10.1007/s12665-022-10343-7
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发表时间：
2022-04
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
A. Elshall;M. Ye;S. Kranz;J. Harrington;Xiaojuan Yang;Yongshan Wan;M. Maltrud
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Elshall;M. Ye;S. Kranz;J. Harrington;Xiaojuan Yang;Yongshan Wan;M. Maltrud
地球系统模型（ESM）作为优质气候服务的独特研究基础设施，但其在区域尺度环境管理中的应用尚未得到充分探索。耦合模型比对项目第 6 阶段 (CMIP6) 模拟的前所未有的分辨率和模型保真度，特别是专注于区域现象的高分辨率模型比对项目 (HighResMIP)，为此类应用提供了机会。本文介绍了使用 HighResMIP 模拟来解决区域环境问题佛罗里达赤潮的首次尝试。这是由甲藻短凯伦藻（一种有毒的单细胞微观原生生物）引起的有害藻华。我们使用 CMIP6 历史模拟来建立环流（进入墨西哥湾的暖洋流）的位置与 K 的出现之间的因果关系。佛罗里达州西部大陆架上的短花。结果表明，高分辨率 ESM 能够在区域空间尺度上模拟感兴趣的现象（即环流），并且在环流与赤潮之间的关系方面具有足够的数据模型一致性。我们通过这个案例研究来阐述使用公开的 CMIP 数据进行区域环境管理的前景和局限性。我们强调当前的差距和下一代无害环境管理的发展需求，并讨论利益相关者参与未来无害环境管理的作用，以促进科学理解的转化，更好地为区域环境管理决策提供信息。
Earth system models (ESMs) serve as a unique research infrastructure for quality climate services, yet their application for environmental management at regional scale has not yet been fully explored. The unprecedented resolution and model fidelity of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations, especially of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) focusing on regional phenomena, offer opportunities for such applications. This article presents the first venture into using the HighResMIP simulations to tackle a regional environmental issue, the Florida Red Tide. This is a harmful algae bloom caused by the dinoflagellateKarenia brevis,a toxic single-celled microscopic protist. We use CMIP6 historical simulations to establish a causal agreement between the position of Loop Current, a warm ocean current that moves into the Gulf of Mexico, and the occurrence ofK. brevisblooms on the Western Florida shelf. Results show that the high-resolution ESMs are capable of simulating the phenomena of interest (i.e., Loop Current) at the regional spatial scale with generally adequate data-model agreement in the context of the relation between Loop Current and red tide. We use this case study to elaborate on the prospects and limitations of using publicly available CMIP data for regional environmental management. We highlight the current gaps and the developmental needs for the next generation ESMs, and discuss the role of stakeholder participation in future ESMs development to facilitate the translation of scientific understanding to better inform decision-making of regional environmental management.