Stochastically induced climate shift of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation

Stochastically induced climate shift of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation
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厄尔尼诺南方涛动随机引起的气候变化

DOI：
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Chang
P. Chang
中科院分区：
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文献类型：
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作者：
M. Flügel;P. Chang

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观测研究表明，El Niño‐南方涛动（ENSO）在20世纪80年代的特征与20世纪60年代和70年代的特征明显不同。本文提供的模拟证据表明，随机过程不仅会导致海表温度（SST）持续性的变化，还会导致ENSO可预测性的变化。在此基础上，我们认为ENSO的气候变化可能是由随机过程引起的，例如1976年前后发生的气候变化。因此，应将随机机制作为气候变化的零假设，与之相比较的是竞争机制。
Observational studies indicate that the characteristics of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the 1980s are noticeably different from those during the 1960s and 1970s. Here, we provide modeling evidence that stochastic processes can not only produce a shift in the persistence of sea‐surface temperature (SST) but also causes changes in the predictability of ENSO. Based on this result, we suggest that climate shifts of ENSO, such as that occurred around 1976, could be induced by stochastic processes. Therefore, the stochastic mechanism should be taken as a null hypothesis for climate shifts against which competing mechanisms must be compared.