North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outer Size and Structure Remain Unchanged by the Late Twenty-First Century
North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outer Size and Structure Remain Unchanged by the Late Twenty-First Century
复制标题
到二十一世纪末，北大西洋热带气旋的外部尺寸和结构保持不变
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-22-0066.1
复制
发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Brammer, Alan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schenkel, Benjamin A.;Chavas, Daniel;Lin, Ning;Knutson, Thomas;Vecchi, Gabriel;Brammer, Alan
对于北大西洋热带气旋 (TC) 的外部尺寸和结构（即，随着 TC 半径的增加，外部风的变化）到 21 世纪末是否会有所不同，目前还缺乏共识。因此，本工作旨在利用 CMIP3 SRES A1B 和 CMIP5 RCP4.5 情景下的多次模拟来研究北大西洋热带气旋外层风场的大小和结构是否会在 21 世纪末发生变化。具体来说，我们的分析检查了 GFDL 高分辨率预报导向的低海洋分辨率模型 (HiFLOR) 和 GFDL 飓风模型降尺度气候模型输出的两个版本的数据。我们的结果表明，在几乎所有 HiFLOR 和 GFDL 飓风模型模拟中，预计的北大西洋热带气旋外部尺寸和结构到 21 世纪末都保持不变。此外，在大多数 HiFLOR 和 GFDL 飓风模型模拟中，北大西洋不存在显着的区域外部尺寸差异。在几乎所有模拟中，在风暴生命周期中，控制模拟与二十一世纪末模拟之间不存在任何变化。对于显示 TC 外部尺寸显着减小的模拟，这些变化归因于风暴寿命和外部尺寸增长率的减少。大多数模拟中外部尺寸没有差异，这与控制风暴尺寸理论上限（即莱茵河尺度）的过程一致，该过程在热力学上是不变的。然而，许多这些结论的模拟之间缺乏完全共识，这表明我们的结果存在很大的不确定性。
There is a lack of consensus on whether North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) outer size and structure (i.e., change in outer winds with increasing radius from the TC) will differ by the late twenty-first century. Hence, this work seeks to examine whether North Atlantic TC outer wind field size and structure will change by the late twenty-first century using multiple simulations under CMIP3 SRES A1B and CMIP5 RCP4.5 scenarios. Specifically, our analysis examines data from the GFDL High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution model (HiFLOR) and two versions of the GFDL hurricane model downscaling climate model output. Our results show that projected North Atlantic TC outer size and structure remain unchanged by the late twenty-first century within nearly all HiFLOR and GFDL hurricane model simulations. Moreover, no significant regional outer size differences exist in the North Atlantic within most HiFLOR and GFDL hurricane model simulations. No changes between the control and late-twenty-first-century simulations exist over the storm life cycle in nearly all simulations. For the simulation that shows significant decreases in TC outer size, the changes are attributed to reductions in storm lifetime and outer size growth rates. The absence of differences in outer size among most simulations is consistent with the process that controls the theoretical upper bound of storm size (i.e., Rhines scaling), which is thermodynamically invariant. However, the lack of complete consensus among simulations for many of these conclusions suggests nontrivial uncertainty in our results.