When decarbonization meets development: The sectoral feasibility of greenhouse gas mitigation in India
When decarbonization meets development: The sectoral feasibility of greenhouse gas mitigation in India
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DOI：
10.1016/j.erss.2016.11.011
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发表时间：
2017-01-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Shidore, Sarang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Busby, Joshua W.;Shidore, Sarang
在2015年巴黎气候谈判的准备阶段，印度政府宣布了雄心勃勃的气候缓解目标，作为其INDC(国家自主贡献)的一部分。印度能否实现这些目标是一个关键问题，关系到巴黎气候协议的成功。我们通过部门视角评估印度的减排潜力，重点放在八个主要行业--即电力生产、农业、道路运输、建筑和四个细分行业(钢铁、水泥、石化和化肥)。我们认为，从结构的角度来看，减排是否有利取决于两个主要因素：(1)政治/组织可行性和(2)技术-经济可行性。政治/组织的可行性反过来又通过两个额外的因素进行评估，即市场集中度和政府集中度。我们的中心直觉是，分散的市场和/或分散的政府结构对集体行动构成了障碍。道路运输是最有利于减排的行业，其次是石化行业。水泥和化肥已经处于或接近全球能效前沿。三个行业--电力、农业和钢铁--在可行性的两个维度上都是棘手的案例。建筑具有很强的技术经济可行性，但具有挑战性的政治/组织可行性。(C)2016爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
In the run-up to the 2015 Paris climate talks, the Indian government announced ambitious climate mitigation goals as part of its INDC (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions). Whether India can meet these targets is a critical question with implications for the success of the Paris climate agreement.We assess India's potential for emissions mitigation through a sectoral lens, focusing on eight dominant sectors - namely electricity production, agriculture, road transport, buildings, and four disaggregated industry subsectors (steel, cement, petrochemicals, and fertilizers). We argue that whether emissions mitigation is favorable from a structural perspective is a function of two main factors: (1) political/organizational feasibility and (2) techno-economic feasibility. Political/organizational feasibility in turn is assessed through two additional factors, market concentration and government concentration. Our central intuition is that fragmented markets and/or fragmented government structures pose barriers for collective action.Road transport represents the most favorable sector for emissions mitigation followed by petrochemicals. Cement and fertilizers are already at or near the global efficiency frontier. Three sectors - electricity, agriculture, and steel - represent hard cases on both dimensions of feasibility. Buildings possess strong techno-economic feasibility but challenging political/organizational feasibility. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.