Propagation of future climate conditions into hydrologic response from coastal southern California watersheds
Propagation of future climate conditions into hydrologic response from coastal southern California watersheds
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将未来气候条件传播到南加州沿海流域的水文响应中
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-019-02371-3
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Cayan, Daniel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Feng, Dongmei;Beighley, Edward;Raoufi, Roozbeh;Melack, John;Zhao, Yuanhao;Iacobellis, Sam;Cayan, Daniel
作为地中海气候下的生物多样性地区，高度发达的流域和自然流域的混合，沿海圣巴巴拉县（SB），位于加州南部，容易受到气候变化的水文影响。本研究调查了该地区水文气象变量的潜在变化及其对21世纪预测气候条件的社会和生态影响。每日径流合奏从135个沿海流域为2021-2100年期间使用山坡河流路由（HRR）模型被迫与降尺度降水和温度预测来自10个气候模型在耦合模型相互比较项目，第5阶段，和两个排放情景（代表性浓度路径，RCP，4.5和8.5）。相对于历史条件的预计集合降水和径流系列的分析（1961-2000）显示（i）年降水量变化极小（中位数变化在±3%以内）;（ii）季节性降雨分布发生变化，雨季开始时（10月至12月）降雨量减少，1月至3月期间降雨量增加，季节结束时（4月至6月）降雨量减少;（iii）大风暴（> 36毫米/天）的强度和频率增加，再加上雨季缩短，导致年峰值流量增加;以及（iv）降水特征变化的传播，导致年最大流量的强度和可变性发生非线性变化（即，平均值、标准偏差、偏斜）影响估计重现期排放（例如，估计2061-2100年100年的洪水流量低于8.5，增加高达185%）。虽然这些结果是特定的南部沿海加州，非线性水文响应的性质改变降水特征强调的价值，区域研究调查气候预测对径流动态的潜在影响。
As a biodiverse region under a Mediterranean climate with a mix of highly developed and natural watersheds, coastal Santa Barbara County (SB), located in southern California, is susceptible to the hydrologic impacts of climate change. This study investigates the potential changes in hydro-meteorological variables in this region as well as their societal and ecological implications for projected climate conditions during the twenty-first century. Daily streamflow ensembles from 135 coastal watersheds for the period 2021–2100 are developed using the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model forced with downscaled precipitation and temperature projections derived from 10 climate models in the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5, and two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP, 4.5 and 8.5). Analysis of the projected ensemble precipitation and streamflow series relative to historical conditions (1961–2000) shows (i) minimal change in annual precipitation (median change within ±3%); (ii) an altered seasonal rainfall distribution with a decrease in rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season (Oct–Dec), an increase during the Jan–Mar period, and a decrease at the end of the season (Apr–Jun); (iii) increases in the magnitude and frequency of large storms (> 36 mm/day) which combined with a shorter rainy season, lead to increases in annual peak flows; and (iv) the propagation of the altered precipitation characteristics resulting in nonlinear changes in the magnitude and variability of annual maximum discharges (i.e., mean, standard deviation, skew) impacting estimated return period discharges (e.g., estimated 100-year flood discharges for the period 2061–2100 under 8.5 increase by up to 185%). While these results are specific to southern coastal California, the nature of nonlinear hydrologic response to altered precipitation characteristics underscores the value of regional studies investigating potential impacts of climate projections on streamflow dynamics.
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DOI：
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