Climate change effects on Chikungunya transmission in Europe: geospatial analysis of vector's climatic suitability and virus' temperature requirements.
Climate change effects on Chikungunya transmission in Europe: geospatial analysis of vector's climatic suitability and virus' temperature requirements.
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DOI：
10.1186/1476-072x-12-51
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发表时间：
2013-11-12
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Semenza JC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fischer D;Thomas SM;Suk JE;Sudre B;Hess A;Tjaden NB;Beierkuhnlein C;Semenza JC
从欧洲的角度来看，基孔肯雅热在2007年北方意大利首次爆发之前被认为是一种与旅行有关的热带蚊媒疾病。随后，2010年在法国东南部报告了本土传播病例。这两起事件都发生在基孔肯雅病易感和高度侵入性疾病媒介白纹伊蚊（亚洲虎蚊）在欧洲的引进、建立和扩大之后。为了评估这些疫情是否预示着一种趋势的开始或一次性事件，有必要进一步研究推动基孔肯雅病在欧洲潜在传播的因素。现在和将来的气候适宜性是进行这种分析的一个基本出发点。基孔肯雅热暴发的气候适宜性是通过使用影响病媒和病原体的生物气候因素来确定的。欧洲分布的媒介白纹伊蚊的气候适宜性是基于以前的相关环境生态位模型。气候风险等级是通过将媒介的气候适宜性与从暴发地区获得的病原体传播的已知温度要求相结合而得出的。此外，对预期病媒发生的地区估计了基孔肯雅病传播的最长潜在年内季节。为了分析欧洲风险暴露和传播季节的时空趋势，对政府间气候变化专门委员会（气专委）的三个时间框架（2011-2040年、2041-2070年和2071-2100年）和两种气候情景（A1 B和B1）的气候变化影响进行了预测。这些气候预测基于区域气候模型COSMO-CLM，该模型建立在全球模型ECHAM 5的基础上。确定了目前和未来气候适宜基孔肯雅病毒传播的欧洲地区。预计21世纪上半叶西欧（如法国和贝宁卢国家）的风险将增加，从本世纪中叶开始，欧洲中部地区（如德国）的风险将增加。有趣的是，欧洲最南端的地区通常无法在这些预测中提供合适的条件。尽管如此，许多地中海地区的气候仍将继续适合传播。总体而言，预计到21世纪末，法国、北方意大利和潘诺尼亚盆地（中东欧）的传播风险最高。A1 B和B1两种气候变化假设情景都描述了这一总体趋势。为了指导对进一步暴发的准备工作，至关重要的是要预测风险，以确定可以实施监测和病媒控制等具体公共卫生措施的领域。然而，公共卫生从业人员需要意识到，气候只是推动病媒传播疾病传播的一个因素。
Chikungunya was, from the European perspective, considered to be a travel-related tropical mosquito-borne disease prior to the first European outbreak in Northern Italy in 2007. This was followed by cases of autochthonous transmission reported in South-eastern France in 2010. Both events occurred after the introduction, establishment and expansion of the Chikungunya-competent and highly invasive disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) in Europe. In order to assess whether these outbreaks are indicative of the beginning of a trend or one-off events, there is a need to further examine the factors driving the potential transmission of Chikungunya in Europe. The climatic suitability, both now and in the future, is an essential starting point for such an analysis. The climatic suitability for Chikungunya outbreaks was determined by using bioclimatic factors that influence, both vector and, pathogen. Climatic suitability for the European distribution of the vector Aedes albopictus was based upon previous correlative environmental niche models. Climatic risk classes were derived by combining climatic suitability for the vector with known temperature requirements for pathogen transmission, obtained from outbreak regions. In addition, the longest potential intra-annual season for Chikungunya transmission was estimated for regions with expected vector occurrences. In order to analyse spatio-temporal trends for risk exposure and season of transmission in Europe, climate change impacts are projected for three time-frames (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100) and two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These climatic projections are based on regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which builds on the global model ECHAM5. European areas with current and future climatic suitability of Chikungunya transmission are identified. An increase in risk is projected for Western Europe (e.g. France and Benelux-States) in the first half of the 21st century and from mid-century onwards for central parts of Europe (e.g. Germany). Interestingly, the southernmost parts of Europe do not generally provide suitable conditions in these projections. Nevertheless, many Mediterranean regions will persist to be climatically suitable for transmission. Overall, the highest risk of transmission by the end of the 21st century was projected for France, Northern Italy and the Pannonian Basin (East-Central Europe). This general tendency is depicted in both, the A1B and B1 climate change scenarios. In order to guide preparedness for further outbreaks, it is crucial to anticipate risk as to identify areas where specific public health measures, such as surveillance and vector control, can be implemented. However, public health practitioners need to be aware that climate is only one factor driving the transmission of vector-borne disease.