Effect of Timing of and Adherence to Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Burden in the United States A Simulation Modeling Approach
Effect of Timing of and Adherence to Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Burden in the United States A Simulation Modeling Approach
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DOI：
10.7326/m20-4096
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发表时间：
2021-01-01
影响因子：
39.2
通讯作者：
Safdar, Nasia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alagoz, Oguzhan;Sethi, Ajay K.;Safdar, Nasia
背景：美国各地实施了各种社会距离措施，以控制2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的传播。然而，对于具有不同人口统计特征和不同程度遵守社交距离的特定区域，此类措施的有效性尚不确定。目的：了解特殊地区实施社会距离措施的效果。设计：基于agent的仿真模型。设置：基于agent的模型应用于威斯康星州戴恩县；密尔沃基都会区；和纽约市（NYC）。患者：不同年龄的合成人群。干预措施：在不同的遵守程度上实施和放松社会距离措施的时间不同。测量方法：该模型代表了一个地区的社会网络和人与人之间的相互作用，考虑了人口统计学特征、有限的检测可用性、“输入”感染、无症状疾病传播以及特定年龄对社会距离措施的依从性。主要指标为新冠肺炎确诊病例总数。结果：保持社交距离的时机和坚持对COVID-19的发生有重要影响。在纽约市，如果提前一周实施社交距离措施，截至2020年5月31日，确诊病例总数将从203261例减少到41366例，而延迟一周可能会使确诊病例数增加到147600例。实施的延迟对密尔沃基都会区与戴恩县的病例数量产生了不同的影响，这表明即使在同一州内，社会距离措施的效果也有所不同。限制：没有考虑天气条件对传输动力学的影响。结论：实施和放松社会距离措施的时机对COVID-19病例数有重要影响。主要资金来源：国家过敏和传染病研究所。
Background: Across the United States, various social distancing measures were implemented to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the effectiveness of such measures for specific regions with varying population demographic characteristics and different levels of adherence to social distancing is uncertain.Objective: To determine the effect of social distancing measures in unique regions.Design: An agent-based simulation model.Setting: Agent-based model applied to Dane County, Wisconsin; the Milwaukee metropolitan (metro) area; and New York City (NYC).Patients: Synthetic population at different ages.Intervention: Different times for implementing and easing social distancing measures at different levels of adherence.Measurements: The model represented the social network and interactions among persons in a region, considering population demographic characteristics, limited testing availability, "imported" infections, asymptomatic disease transmission, and age-specific adherence to social distancing measures. The primary outcome was the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases.Results: The timing of and adherence to social distancing had a major effect on COVID-19 occurrence. In NYC, implementing social distancing measures 1 week earlier would have reduced the total number of confirmed cases from 203 261 to 41 366 as of 31 May 2020, whereas a 1-week delay could have increased the number of confirmed cases to 1 407 600. A delay in implementation had a differential effect on the number of cases in the Milwaukee metro area versus Dane County, indicating that the effect of social distancing measures varies even within the same state.Limitation: The effect of weather conditions on transmission dynamics was not considered.Conclusion: The timing of implementing and easing social distancing measures has major effects on the number of COVID-19 cases. Primary Funding Source: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.