Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history
Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history
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气候变化的双重影响：生命史中的森林迁移和周转
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.12382
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
J. Clark
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Zhu;C. Woodall;Souparno Ghosh;A. Gelfand;J. Clark
据预测，树种将通过改变其地理分布来追踪未来的气候，但在最近的大陆尺度分析中，气候介导的迁徙并不明显。为了更好地理解可能的迁移滞后的机制，我们通过比较气候空间中幼树和成年树的丰度来分析相对补充模式。人们预计，由于树木迁移，在寒冷和干燥的气候下，相对的补充量会更高，幼树比成树更靠近极地。另外，在温暖和潮湿的气候下，由于温度和降水的增加，树木种群更替率更高，相对补充可能会更高。利用美国农业部林务局的区域尺度森林清查和分析数据，我们联合模拟了美国东部气候空间中 65 种树种的幼年和成年丰度分布。我们直接比较了幼年和成虫的最佳气候条件，确定了每个物种具有较高相对补充的气候，并综合了跨物种的相对补充模式。结果表明，对于 77% 和 83% 的树种来说，幼树的最适温度和最适降水量分别高于成年树种。在各个物种中，相对补充模式主要是在温暖和潮湿的气候中，幼体的数量比成体的数量相对较多。这些不同的生命史丰度-气候响应与更快的种群更替一致，但与大规模树木迁移的地理趋势不一致。总而言之，这种幼年-成年分析表明，在生物地理尺度上出现向极地迁移的证据之前，树种可能会通过更快的更替来应对气候变化，因为随着生长季节的延长和温度的升高，动态会加速。
Tree species are predicted to track future climate by shifting their geographic distributions, but climate‐mediated migrations are not apparent in a recent continental‐scale analysis. To better understand the mechanisms of a possible migration lag, we analyzed relative recruitment patterns by comparing juvenile and adult tree abundances in climate space. One would expect relative recruitment to be higher in cold and dry climates as a result of tree migration with juveniles located further poleward than adults. Alternatively, relative recruitment could be higher in warm and wet climates as a result of higher tree population turnover with increased temperature and precipitation. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data at regional scales, we jointly modeled juvenile and adult abundance distributions for 65 tree species in climate space of the eastern United States. We directly compared the optimal climate conditions for juveniles and adults, identified the climates where each species has high relative recruitment, and synthesized relative recruitment patterns across species. Results suggest that for 77% and 83% of the tree species, juveniles have higher optimal temperature and optimal precipitation, respectively, than adults. Across species, the relative recruitment pattern is dominated by relatively more abundant juveniles than adults in warm and wet climates. These different abundance‐climate responses through life history are consistent with faster population turnover and inconsistent with the geographic trend of large‐scale tree migration. Taken together, this juvenile–adult analysis suggests that tree species might respond to climate change by having faster turnover as dynamics accelerate with longer growing seasons and higher temperatures, before there is evidence of poleward migration at biogeographic scales.