Improved 90-day Earth orientation predictions from angular momentum forecasts of atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial hydrosphere
Improved 90-day Earth orientation predictions from angular momentum forecasts of atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial hydrosphere
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DOI：
10.1007/s00190-018-1158-7
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发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Thomas, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dill, R.;Dobslaw, H.;Thomas, M.
地球自转激励的大气、海洋和水文有效角动量函数（EAM）的短期预测与最小二乘外推和自回归建模相结合，以常规预测未来90天内的极移（PM）和UT1。基于2016年和2017年的后报实验，详细阐述了最佳性能参数化。在10天的预报范围内，PM和UT1的剩余预测误差分别为3.02和5.39 mas，与国际地球自转和参考系服务的公告A中定期报告的预测相比，分别提高了34.5%和44.7%。在60天的预报范围内，PM和UT1的预报误差分别为12.52和107.96 mas，比公告A分别提高了34.5%和8.2%。导致这些改进的EOP预测的90天EAM预测每天例行发布在isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/esmdata/eam上。
Short-term forecasts of atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological effective angular momentum functions (EAM) of Earth rotation excitation are combined with least-squares extrapolation and autoregressive modeling to routinely predict polar motion (PM) and UT1 for up to 90 days into the future. Based on hindcast experiments covering the years 2016 and 2017, a best performing parametrization was elaborated. At forecast horizons of 10 days, remaining prediction errors are 3.02 and 5.39 mas for PM and UT1, respectively, corresponding to improvements of 34.5 and 44.7% when compared to predictions reported routinely in Bulletin A of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service. At forecast horizons of 60 days, prediction errors are 12.52 and 107.96 mas for PM and UT1, corresponding to improvements of 34.5 and 8.2% over Bulletin A. The 90-day-long EAM forecasts leading to those improved EOP predictions are routinely published on a daily basis at isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/esmdata/eam.