Measurements meet human observations: integrating distinctive ways of knowing in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan to assess local climate change
Measurements meet human observations: integrating distinctive ways of knowing in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan to assess local climate change
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-021-02988-3
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发表时间：
2021-03-02
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Samimi, Cyrus
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Haag, Isabell;Kassam, Karim-Aly;Samimi, Cyrus
在山区环境中，由于气象站有限，气候变化的范围尚不清楚。然而，有必要评估当地气候变化的范围，因为以生存为基础的社区的生计和粮食系统已经受到影响。为了更清楚地了解塔吉克斯坦帕米尔山脉的当地气候趋势，本研究将测量的气候数据与Savnob和Roshov的那些村庄的社区观测相结合。采取跨学科的方法，这两个知识体系被认为是同样相关的，相互了解的研究过程。温度和积雪的统计趋势检索使用缩小ERA5温度数据和积雪产品MOD 10A1。通过社区研讨会和结构化访谈收集当地知识，并使用共识指数进行分析。结果表明，当地社区在秋季和冬季的温度上升，减少降雪和降雨量。仪器数据记录表明，萨夫诺布夏季气温上升，雪季缩短。由于这两种知识体系都有其自身的优势和局限性，综合评估可以通过（i）减少现有的不确定性，（ii）提供新的信息，（iii）引入不可预见的观点来扩大对当地气候趋势的理解。本研究为评估缺乏数据地区气候变化的地方层面提供了一种具有时效性和全球适用性的方法。
In mountain environments dimensions of climate change are unclear because of limited availability of meteorological stations. However, there is a necessity to assess the scope of local climate change, as the livelihood and food systems of subsistence-based communities are already getting impacted. To provide more clarity about local climate trends in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan, this study integrates measured climate data with community observations in the villages of Savnob and Roshorv. Taking a transdisciplinary approach, both knowledge systems were considered as equally pertinent and mutually informed the research process. Statistical trends of temperature and snow cover were retrieved using downscaled ERA5 temperature data and the snow cover product MOD10A1. Local knowledge was gathered through community workshops and structured interviews and analysed using a consensus index. Results showed, that local communities perceived increasing temperatures in autumn and winter and decreasing amounts of snow and rain. Instrumental data records indicated an increase in summer temperatures and a shortening of the snow season in Savnob. As both knowledge systems entail their own strengths and limitations, an integrative assessment can broaden the understanding of local climate trends by (i) reducing existing uncertainties, (ii) providing new information, and (iii) introducing unforeseen perspectives. The presented study represents a time-efficient and global applicable approach for assessing local dimensions of climate change in data-deficient regions.