Transmission dynamics of and insights from the 2018-2019 measles outbreak in New York City: A modeling study.
Transmission dynamics of and insights from the 2018-2019 measles outbreak in New York City: A modeling study.
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纽约市 2018-2019 年麻疹疫情的传播动态和见解：一项建模研究。
DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.aaz4037
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Yang,Wan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yang,Wan
2018-2019年，纽约市经历了近30年来美国最大规模的麻疹疫情。为了确定关键的影响因素，我们模拟了这次疫情的传播动态。结果表明，1至4岁儿童的延迟接种疫苗使最初的传播成为可能，而增加的传染性接触，可能是通过“麻疹当事人”，促进了后来的传播。我们发现，大约一半的婴儿在1岁时易感，因此有很多感染。如果没有实施疫苗接种运动，感染和住院人数可能会高出100至10倍，并且主要影响4岁以下儿童。这些结果表明，在1岁之前接种第一剂疫苗，在4岁之前接种第二剂疫苗，可以使父母在持续高水平的疫苗犹豫的情况下更有效地接种疫苗并保护儿童。需要加强公共卫生教育，以减少使儿童不必要地接触麻疹和其他感染的活动。
In 2018–2019, New York City experienced the largest measles outbreak in the United States in nearly three decades. To identify key contributing factors, we modeled the transmission dynamics of this outbreak. Results indicate that delayed vaccination of 1- to 4-year-olds enabled the initial spread and that increased infectious contact, likely via “measles parties,” facilitated later transmission. We found that around half of infants were susceptible by age 1 and thus had many infections. Without the implemented vaccination campaigns, numbers of infections and hospitalizations could have been >10 times higher and would predominantly affect those under 4. These results suggest that a first vaccine dose before age 1 and the second dose before age 4 could allow parents to vaccinate and protect children more effectively should a high level of vaccine hesitancy persist. Enhanced public health education is needed to reduce activities that unnecessarily expose children to measles and other infections.