Economic valuation of public health impact of ambient air pollution under various scenarios of traffic policies in Shanghai
Economic valuation of public health impact of ambient air pollution under various scenarios of traffic policies in Shanghai
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发表时间：
2007
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通讯作者：
Zhang Yun-hui
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhang Yun-hui
目的 定量评估上海各种交通政策情景对健康的影响和相关经济效益。方法采用基于健康的风险评估和相关经济估算，定量分析交通相关空气污染的公共卫生影响和经济效益。结果结果表明交通政策对上海居民未来健康状况有显着影响。与2004年相比，2008年实施BAU和KJ2情景可分别减少654人和1 891人（平均值）PM10相关死亡。 DALY损失为8 717-25 198，经济损失可达147。25-425。 6500万美元（平均值）。 2020年，BAU和KJ2情景的实施将导致PM10相关死亡人数分别减少464人和3 114人（平均值）。 DALY损失为6 188-41 509，经济效益将达到104。53-701。 1800万美元（平均值）。结论 对各种交通政策情景下空气污染改善相关的健康和经济效益的评估揭示了潜在的高社会效益，可用于政策制定者进一步的成本效益分析。
Purpose To provide a quantitative estimate of the health effects and related economic benefits associated with various scenarios of traffic policy in Shanghai. Methods Health-based risk assessment and related economic estimation were used to quantitatively analyze public health effects and economic benefits of traffic-related air pollution. Results The results showed that traffic policy could have significant impact on the future health status of Shanghai residents. Compared with the year of 2004, the implementation of BAU and KJ2 scenarios in 2008 could cause a decrease of 654, and 1 891 (mean value) PM10-related deaths respectively in the meantime. The DALYs loss was 8 717-25 198 and the economic loss could reach 147. 25-425. 65 millions U. S. dollars (mean value). In the year of 2020, the implementation of BAU and KJ2 scenarios would result in a decrease of 464 and 3 114 PM10-related deaths (mean value). The DALYs loss was 6 188-41 509 and the economic benefit would reach 104. 53-701. 18 millions U. S. dollars (mean value). Conclusions Evaluation of the health and economic benefits associated with air pollution improvement under various scenarios of traffic policy has revealed potentially high social benefits and can be used in further cost-benefit analysis for policy-makers.