Comparison of models for estimation of long-term exposure to air pollution in cohort studies
Comparison of models for estimation of long-term exposure to air pollution in cohort studies
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.08.001
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发表时间：
2012-12-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Agius, R. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beverland, I. J.;Robertson, C.;Agius, R. M.
本研究比较了三种时空模型，用于估计1970年至1979年期间整个苏格兰中部地区的空气污染暴露，涉及两项密切相关的前瞻性队列研究中的约21,600人。尽管在1970- 1979年期间的某个时间点在该地区运行了181个黑烟监测点，但许多站点缺少大量的黑烟暴露数据。三种暴露估计方法是：(i)基于区域的回归模型来估算缺失数据，然后通过附近监测点观测到的BS （IDWBS）的逆距离加权来分配暴露；（ii）以区域为基础的回归模型，以推算缺失的数据，然后使用四个本地空气质素预测因子（LAQP）建立空间回归加性模型：海拔；到最近的主要道路的距离；250米缓冲区内的住户密度；和到城市边界边缘的距离（AMBS）；（iii）利用LAQP （MultiBS）建立多层次时空模型。使用预测BS图对这三种方法进行评估，并在>= 80%的数据点使用监测和估算BS进行交叉验证。在AMBS和MultiBS暴露模型中使用LAQP提供了与主要道路和城市中心相关的已知BS源一致的BS空间格局。交叉验证分析表明，与IDWBS和AMBS模型（R-2分别为19%和20%）相比，MultiBS模型对监测点年代际几何平均BS浓度的预测更为精确（R-2 = 60%）。(C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
This study compared three spatio-temporal models for estimation of exposure to air pollution throughout the central part of Scotland during 1970-79 for approximately 21,600 individuals in 2 closely-related prospective cohort studies. Although 181 black smoke (BS) monitoring sites operated in this region at some point during 1970-79, a substantial amount of BS exposure data was missing at many sites. The three exposure estimation methods were: (i) area-based regression models to impute missing data followed by assignment of exposure by inverse distance weighting of observed BS at nearby monitoring sites (IDWBS); (ii) area-based regression models to impute missing data followed by a spatial regression additive model using four local air quality predictors (LAQP): altitude; distance to the nearest major road; household density within a 250 m buffer zone; and distance to the edge of urban boundary (AMBS); (iii) a multilevel spatio-temporal model using LAQP (MultiBS). The three methods were evaluated using maps of predicted BS, and cross validation using monitored and imputed BS at sites with >= 80% data. The use of LAQP in the AMBS and MultiBS exposure models provided spatial patterns in BS consistent with known sources of BS associated with major roads and the centre of urban areas. Cross-validation analyses demonstrated that the MultiBS model provided more precise predictions (R-2 = 60%) of decadal geometric mean BS concentrations at monitoring sites compared with the IDWBS and AMBS models (R-2 of 19% and 20%, respectively). (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.