How Do Natural Resources Influence Civil War? Evidence from Thirteen Cases
How Do Natural Resources Influence Civil War? Evidence from Thirteen Cases
复制标题
自然资源如何影响内战？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
Michael L. Ross
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Michael L. Ross
最近的研究发现，自然资源和内战高度相关。然而，这种相关性背后的因果机制还没有得到很好的理解，部分原因是内战的数据很少，质量也很差。在这篇文章中，我研究了最近的13场内战，以探索资源冲突相关性背后的机制。我描述了七个假设资源如何可能影响冲突，指定每个可观察到的影响，并报告哪些机制可以观察到在一个样本的13个内战中，自然资源“最有可能”发挥了作用。我发现两个被广泛引用的因果机制似乎并不成立;石油、非燃料矿物和毒品与冲突有因果联系，但法律的农产品却没有;资源财富和内战通过各种机制联系在一起，包括其他人没有确定的几个机制。Deshazo，Pierre Englebert，Barbara Geddes，Anke Hoeffler，Macartan Humphreys，Philippe Le Billon，Roy Licklider，Dan Posner，Ken Shultz，and Libby Wood.
Recent studies have found that natural resources and civil war are highly correlated. Yet the causal mechanisms behind the correlation are not well understood, in part because data on civil wars is scarce and of poor quality. In this article I examine thirteen recent civil wars to explore the mechanisms behind the resource-conflict correlation. I describe seven hypotheses about how resources may influence a conflict, specify the observable implications of each, and report which mechanisms can be observed in a sample of thirteen civil wars in which natural resources were “most likely” to have played a role. I find that two of the most widely cited causal mechanisms do not appear to be valid; that oil, nonfuel minerals, and drugs are causally linked to conflict, but legal agricultural commodities are not; and that resource wealth and civil war are linked by a variety of mechanisms, including several that others had not identified.For their comments on earlier drafts, I am grateful to Paul Collier, J. R. Deshazo, Pierre Englebert, Barbara Geddes, Anke Hoeffler, Macartan Humphreys, Philippe Le Billon, Roy Licklider, Dan Posner, Ken Shultz, and Libby Wood.