FDI and Trade - Two Way Linkages?
FDI and Trade - Two Way Linkages?
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外国直接投资和贸易——双向联系？
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.719706
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Ilan Noy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Aizenman;Ilan Noy
本文的目的是研究外国直接投资与国际贸易分类指标之间的跨期联系。我们概述了一个模型来举例说明其中一些联系，描述了调查各种贸易类别之间双向反馈的几种方法，并将其应用于发展中国家的最新经验。在控制其他宏观经济和制度影响后，我们发现子账户之间最强的反馈是FDI和制造业贸易之间。更准确地说，应用Geweke（1982）的分解方法，我们发现贸易和FDI之间的大部分线性反馈（81%）可以通过从FDI总流量到贸易开放度（50%）和从贸易到FDI（31%）的格兰杰因果关系来解释。总线性反馈的其余部分可归因于两个年度系列之间的同时相关性。
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the intertemporal linkages between FDI and disaggregated measures of international trade. We outline a model exemplifying some of these linkages, describe several methods for investigating two-way feedbacks between various categories of trade, and apply them to the recent experience of developing countries. After controlling for other macroeconomic and institutional effects, we find that the strongest feedback between the sub-accounts is between FDI and manufacturing trade. More precisely, applying Geweke (1982)'s decomposition method, we find that most of the linear feedback between trade and FDI (81%) can be accounted for by Granger-causality from FDI gross flows to trade openness (50%) and from trade to FDI (31%). The rest of the total linear feedback is attributable to simultaneous correlation between the two annual series.