The global impact of ozone on agricultural crop yields under current and future air quality legislation
The global impact of ozone on agricultural crop yields under current and future air quality legislation
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.10.033
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
R. Dingenen;F. Dentener;F. Raes;M. Krol;L. Emberson;J. Cofala
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Dingenen;F. Dentener;F. Raes;M. Krol;L. Emberson;J. Cofala
在本文中，我们评估了全球地面臭氧对四种类型的农作物的影响。该研究是基于2000年和2030年全球逐时臭氧场的模拟，使用全球1°×1°双向嵌套大气化学传输模式（TM 5）。对2030年的预测是基于相对乐观的“现行立法（CLE）情景”，即假设目前批准的空气质量立法将在2030年前得到充分实施，而不进一步制定新的减排政策。对于这两个运行，由于臭氧破坏的相对产量损失进行评估的基础上两个不同的指数（累积浓度超过40 ppbV阈值和季节平均白天臭氧浓度分别）在全球，区域和国家尺度。累积度量似乎远不如季节平均值那么稳健，而季节平均值与欧洲、美国、中国、印度南部和东南亚的测量值吻合良好。据估计，目前全球小麦的相对产量损失在7%至12%之间，大豆在6%至16%之间，水稻在3%至4%之间，玉米在3%至5%之间（范围由所使用的不同指标产生）。考虑到我们的评估中可能存在的偏差，通过全球应用“西方”农作物作物生长响应函数，并通过模型在复制臭氧暴露指标方面的表现，我们的估计可能被认为是保守的。在2030年CLE情景下，预计全球形势将主要恶化小麦（全球额外损失2-6%）和大米（全球额外损失1-2%）。到2030年没有减缓措施的印度占全球作物产量损失增加的50%。在区域范围内，预计到CLE-2030年，只有欧洲（大豆）和中国（小麦）的作物损失会显著减少。将这些假定的产量损失换算成所考虑的四种作物的全球经济损失总额，使用2000年的世界市场价格，我们估计经济损失在140亿至260亿美元之间。大约40%的损失发生在中国和印度。考虑到最近粮食价格的上升趋势，臭氧对作物造成的损害预计将抵消国内生产总值增长率的很大一部分，特别是在经济以农业生产为基础的国家。
In this paper we evaluate the global impact of surface ozone on four types of agricultural crop. The study is based on modelled global hourly ozone fields for the year 2000 and 2030, using the global 1°×1° 2-way nested atmospheric chemical transport model (TM5). Projections for the year 2030 are based on the relatively optimistic “current legislation (CLE) scenario”, i.e. assuming that currently approved air quality legislation will be fully implemented by the year 2030, without a further development of new abatement policies. For both runs, the relative yield loss due to ozone damage is evaluated based on two different indices (accumulated concentration above a 40ppbV threshold and seasonal mean daytime ozone concentration respectively) on a global, regional and national scale. The cumulative metric appears to be far less robust than the seasonal mean, while the seasonal mean shows satisfactory agreement with measurements in Europe, the US, China and Southern India and South-East Asia. Present day global relative yield losses are estimated to range between 7% and 12% for wheat, between 6% and 16% for soybean, between 3% and 4% for rice, and between 3% and 5% for maize (range resulting from different metrics used). Taking into account possible biases in our assessment, introduced through the global application of “western” crop exposure–response functions, and through model performance in reproducing ozone-exposure metrics, our estimates may be considered as being conservative. Under the 2030 CLE scenario, the global situation is expected to deteriorate mainly for wheat (additional 2–6% loss globally) and rice (additional 1–2% loss globally). India, for which no mitigation measures have been assumed by 2030, accounts for 50% of these global increase in crop yield loss. On a regional-scale, significant reductions in crop losses by CLE-2030 are only predicted in Europe (soybean) and China (wheat). Translating these assumed yield losses into total global economic damage for the four crops considered, using world market prices for the year 2000, we estimate an economic loss in the range $14–$26 billion. About 40% of this damage is occurring in China and India. Considering the recent upward trends in food prices, the ozone-induced damage to crops is expected to offset a significant portion of the GDP growth rate, especially in countries with an economy based on agricultural production.