How does the new-type urbanisation affect CO2 emissions in China? An empirical analysis from the perspective of technological progress
How does the new-type urbanisation affect CO2 emissions in China? An empirical analysis from the perspective of technological progress
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2019.02.017
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发表时间：
2019-05
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Zhaohua Wang;Yefei Sun;Bo Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhaohua Wang;Yefei Sun;Bo Wang
传统城镇化的发展带来了环境问题，中国政府提出了一条具有中国特色的新型城镇化道路。这种新型城市化如何影响二氧化碳排放？基于2005 - 2016年中国29个省份的面板数据，运用探索性空间数据分析模型、空间计量经济模型和阈值模型，分别分析了CO2排放的空间自相关性、新型城镇化对CO2排放的直接和间接影响以及技术进步产生的阈值特征。主要成果如下：（1）中国CO2排放呈现显著的正自相关性，大部分省份的CO2排放空间分布呈现HH（高-高）或LL（低-低）的聚集性;（2）新型城镇化对CO2排放具有矛盾效应。节能技术对CO2排放具有反弹效应，而环境技术对CO2排放具有抑制作用;（3）新型城镇化通过消除节能技术对CO2排放的反弹效应，促进环境技术的发展，间接抑制了CO2排放;（4）新型城镇化由于节能技术和环境技术水平的不同，对CO2排放具有门槛效应。最后，从新型城镇化、节能技术和环保技术等角度提出了CO2减排的政策建议。
The development of traditional urbanisation has generated environmental problems, so the Chinese Government has proposed a new-type of urbanisation path with uniquely Chinese characteristics. How does this new-type of urbanisation affect CO2emissions? Based on panel data from 29 provinces in China (2005 to 2016), we apply an exploratory spatial data analysis model, a spatial econometric model, and a threshold model to analyse the spatial autocorrelation of CO2emissions, the direct and indirect effects of new-type urbanisation on CO2emissions, and the threshold characteristics produced by technological progress, respectively. The key results are: (1) CO2emissions show significant positive autocorrelation in China, and the spatial distribution of CO2emissions is HH (High-High) or LL (Low-Low) clustered in most provinces; (2) new-type urbanisation has a paradoxical effect on CO2emissions. Energy-saving technology has a rebound effect on CO2emissions, but environmental technology inhibits CO2emissions; (3) by eliminating the rebound effect of energy-saving technology on CO2emissions and promoting environmental technology, new-type urbanisation indirectly inhibits CO2emissions; (4) new-type urbanisation exhibits a threshold effect on CO2emissions due to the different levels of energy-saving technology and environmental technology. Finally, policy recommendations for CO2emissions reduction are proposed from the perspective of new-type urbanisation, energy-saving technology, and environmental technology.