A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C
A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-016-1773-3
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发表时间：
2017-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Zhang, Xinxin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gosling, Simon N.;Zaherpour, Jamal;Zhang, Xinxin
我们提出了第一个气候变化对河流径流的影响评估，利用全球水文模型（Glob-HMs）和流域尺度水文模型（Cat-HMs）的合奏，在多个集水区：亚马逊河上游，达令河，恒河，莉娜，上密西西比，上尼日尔，莱茵河和塔霍河。模拟的年平均径流量（MAR）和高，低的极端流量的四个指标的相对变化进行了比较。总体径流变化的中值与三种不同的全球平均变暖的情况下（1，2和3摄氏度以上的工业化前水平）一般是相似的两个合奏，虽然合奏传播往往是较大的全球HM合奏。此外，总体扩散通常大于两个总体中值之间的差。虽然我们发现令人信服的证据，预计径流量的变化与全球变暖的莱茵河（减少），塔霍河（减少）和勒拿河（增加），其他集水区的变化的迹象和幅度尚不清楚。我们的模型结果强调，特别是对于这三个集水区，全球气候变化减缓，将全球平均气温上升限制在工业化前水平以上2摄氏度以下，可以避免一些水文灾害，这些灾害可以在全球变暖幅度较大的情况下看到。
We present one of the first climate change impact assessments on river runoff that utilises an ensemble of global hydrological models (Glob-HMs) and an ensemble of catchment-scale hydrological models (Cat-HMs), across multiple catchments: the upper Amazon, Darling, Ganges, Lena, upper Mississippi, upper Niger, Rhine and Tagus. Relative changes in simulated mean annual runoff (MAR) and four indicators of high and low extreme flows are compared between the two ensembles. The ensemble median values of changes in runoff with three different scenarios of global-mean warming (1, 2 and 3 degrees C above preindustrial levels) are generally similar between the two ensembles, although the ensemble spread is often larger for the Glob-HM ensemble. In addition the ensemble spread is normally larger than the difference between the two ensemble medians. Whilst we find compelling evidence for projected runoff changes for the Rhine (decrease), Tagus (decrease) and Lena (increase) with global warming, the sign and magnitude of change for the other catchments is unclear. Our model results highlight that for these three catchments in particular, global climate change mitigation, which limits global-mean temperature rise to below 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels, could avoid some of the hydrological hazards that could be seen with higher magnitudes of global warming.