Market integration via entrep?t: Southeast Asia's rice trade, 1828?1870
Market integration via entrep?t: Southeast Asia's rice trade, 1828?1870
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通过转口贸易实现市场一体化：东南亚的大米贸易，1828 年至 1870 年
DOI：
10.1080/20780389.2022.2058926
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
0.5
通讯作者：
Kobayashi Atsushi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ivings;Steven;Yanying Lin;三科仁伸;FAN PENGDA;Kobayashi Atsushi
虽然学者们已经揭示了1870年前欧洲和亚洲之间的洲际市场一体化，但同时期的亚洲内部国际市场一直是零碎的。与这种流行的观点相反，这项研究表明，东南亚的国际大米市场是在一个整合的过程中，从19世纪30年代起，通过新加坡的市场联系和效率的动态变化。具体而言，变异系数的估计表明，长期价格收敛在爪哇，新加坡，华南地区从19世纪30年代到1872年。此外，根据阈值自回归模型估计的交易成本和调整速度的时间变化，19世纪40年代中期以后，爪哇与中国之间的直接市场一体化转变为基于新加坡中介功能的间接一体化，市场效率通过加快信息传递和适应市场联系的变化而稳步提高。这项研究表明，新加坡的转口港功能对1830年代后东南亚大米市场一体化的进展做出了重大贡献，而不是西方主导的贸易自由化。
While scholars have disclosed the pre-1870 intercontinental market integration between Europe and Asia, the contemporaneous intra-Asian international market has been assumed fragmentary. Contrary to this prevailing view, this study demonstrates that Southeast Asia's international rice market was in a process of integration from the 1830s onwards, with a dynamic shift in market linkages and efficiency via Singapore. Specifically, an estimation of coefficient of variation demonstrates long-run price convergence in Java, Singapore, and Southern China from the 1830s until 1872. Moreover, according to temporal variations of transaction costs and adjustment speed estimated using a Threshold Autoregressive model, direct market integration between Java and China shifted to indirect integration based on Singapore's intermediary function after the mid-1840s; market efficiency steadily improved through speedier information transmission while adapting to changing market linkages. This study suggests that rather than Western-led trade liberalizations, Singapore's entrepôt function significantly contributed to the post-1830s progress of Southeast Asia's rice market integration.