A Decision Support Tool for Flow Contingency Management
A Decision Support Tool for Flow Contingency Management
复制标题
流程应急管理的决策支持工具
DOI：
10.2514/6.2012-4976
复制
发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
8.5
通讯作者：
Sandip Roy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Taylor;C. Wanke;Y. Wan;Sandip Roy
本文描述了流量应急管理的一种原型能力，它是下一代航空运输系统中战略性交通流量管理决策的一个组成部分。本文所描述的流量应急管理概念及相关能力旨在解决当今战略规划过程中的现有不足，即决策者缺乏综合信息、模拟和评估能力。具体而言，所提出的原型整合了交通和天气预测，并进一步将这些预测转化为对系统影响的预测，填补了当今运营环境中的一个空白。通过查看综合预测，决策者可以在实施之前模拟和评估所提出的拥堵缓解策略，并在制定特定计划之前对不同方案进行定量比较。因此，该原型为战略性交通流量管理提供了一种综合的问题识别和定量的假设分析能力。本文回顾了总体概念和相关的建模框架，强调了该模型针对战略时间框架内交通流量管理规划所固有困难的各个方面。为了说明所提出的决策过程，从历史数据中选取了一个天气和交通状况的示例进行模拟，结果凸显了对战略性交通流量管理决策所设想的运营效益。
This paper describes a prototype capability for Flow Contingency Management, a component of strategic Traffic Flow Management decision making in the Next Generation Air Transportation System. The Flow Contingency Management concept and associated capabilities described in this paper aim to address current shortfalls in today’s strategic planning process, namely the lack of integrated information, simulation and evaluation capabilities provided to decision makers. Specifically, the proposed prototype integrates the traffic and weather forecasts and further translates these predictions into forecasts of system impact, addressing a gap in today’s operating environment. Viewing the integrated forecast, decision makers can simulate and evaluate proposed congestion-mitigation strategies prior to implementation and quantitatively compare different options before enacting a given plan. As such, the prototype provides an integrated problem identification and quantitative what-if analysis capability for strategic traffic flow management. The paper reviews the overall concept and associated modeling framework, highlighting aspects of the model that address difficulties inherent to traffic flow management planning in the strategic timeframe. To illustrate the proposed decision making process, an example weather and traffic situation, taken from historic data, is simulated and the results highlight the envisioned operational benefits for strategic traffic flow management decision making.