CULTURAL-DIFFERENCES IN THE MISPERCEPTION OF EXPONENTIAL-GROWTH
CULTURAL-DIFFERENCES IN THE MISPERCEPTION OF EXPONENTIAL-GROWTH
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DOI：
10.3758/bf03202958
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发表时间：
1983-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
KEREN, G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
KEREN, G
先前的研究表明，人类受试者严重低估了指数增长函数。本研究调查了这种低估在多大程度上取决于过去的经验，其中要求受试者根据给定的通货膨胀率估计产品的未来价格。研究对象来自两个不同的人群（加拿大和以色列），这些人群在过去几年中面临着截然不同的通货膨胀率。所有受试者都观察到增长函数（即通货膨胀率）被低估，但受试者之间存在显着（不仅仅是统计意义上的）差异，具体取决于他们所来自的人群。以色列受试者的低估程度明显较小，这一结果在另一项实验中得到了证实（在以色列货币单位发生变化后）。结果是在主观数字尺度的框架内讨论的。
Previous studies demonstrated that exponential growth functions are grossly underestimated by human subjects. The extent to which this underestimation depends on past experience was investigated in the present study in which subjects were required to estimate future prices of a product based on a given rate of inflation. The subjects were drawn from 2 different populations (Canada and Israel) which were exposed to radically different rates of inflation during the last few years. Underestimation of the growth function (i.e., the inflation rate) was observed for all subjects, but there was a significant (not just in the statistical sense) difference between subjects, depending on the population from which they were drawn. The magnitude of underestimation for Israeli subjects was significantly smaller, a result that was confirmed in an additional experiment (after the change in the Israeli monetary unit). The results are discussed within the framework of subjective scales of numbers.