Simulation and Evaluation of Complex Water Systems Operations
Simulation and Evaluation of Complex Water Systems Operations
复制标题
复杂水系统运行的模拟和评估
DOI：
10.1029/wr006i006p01737
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发表时间：
1970
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
P. Moran
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Moran
考虑到通常非常非正态分布，序列依赖性，季节性变化，以及不同流之间的相关性，考虑到生产的长期人工系列的多个流量，说每月或每周的值。建议用伽马型分布拟合给定河流和月份的流量分布，然后将这些分布转换为正态分布变量。一个单独的典型相关分析，为每个连续对月，使一个建立一个非平稳的季节性变化的马尔可夫过程，然后转换回原来的非正态变量。使用这种模拟系列计算系统的大坝的概率行为和近似优化其操作的描述，连同估计的标准误差。
The production of long artificial series of multiple streamflows given for say monthly or weekly values is considered, taking into account the usually very nonnormal distributions involved, serial dependence, seasonal variation, and the correlation between different streams. It is proposed that the distribution of flows for a given stream and month be fitted by gamma type distributions, and that these distributions then be transformed to obtain normally distributed variates. A separate canonical correlation analysis for each successive pair of months enables one to set up a nonstationary seasonally varying Markovian process that is then transformed back into the original nonnormal variates. The uses of such simulated series for calculating the probability behavior of a system of dams and for the approximate optimization of their operation is described, together with the estimation of standard errors.