Income distribution trends and future food demand.
Income distribution trends and future food demand.
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2010.0164
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发表时间：
2010-09-27
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Masset E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cirera X;Masset E
本文综述了收入分配与粮食需求之间关系的理论文献，找出了当前粮食建模技术中影响粮食需求预测准确性的主要差距。收入分配和食品需求之间关系的核心是恩格尔定律。恩格尔定律规定，随着收入的增加，家庭对食品的需求不会按比例增长。这项法律的一个结果是，个人和国家之间收入分配的特殊形式影响了粮食需求的增长速度。我们对文献的回顾表明，现有的粮食需求模型在以下情况下未能纳入所需的恩格尔灵活性：(1)在家庭中汇总不同的粮食预算份额；(2)随着收入的增长而改变预算份额。我们执行简单的模拟来预测在替代收入分配情景下的粮食需求增长，同时考虑到粮食需求的非线性。结果表明：(1)预期分配效应来自国家间不平等的变化，而不是国家内部的不平等；(2)对收入不平等的乐观和悲观情景的模拟表明，2050年世界粮食需求将分别比分配中性增长高2.7%和低5.4%。
This paper surveys the theoretical literature on the relationship between income distribution and food demand, and identifies main gaps of current food modelling techniques that affect the accuracy of food demand projections. At the heart of the relationship between income distribution and food demand is Engel's law. Engel's law establishes that as income increases, households' demand for food increases less than proportionally. A consequence of this law is that the particular shape of the distribution of income across individuals and countries affects the rate of growth of food demand. Our review of the literature suggests that existing models of food demand fail to incorporate the required Engel flexibility when (i) aggregating different food budget shares among households; and (ii) changing budget shares as income grows. We perform simple simulations to predict growth in food demand under alternative income distribution scenarios taking into account nonlinearity of food demand. Results suggest that (i) distributional effects are to be expected from changes in between-countries inequality, rather than within-country inequality; and (ii) simulations of an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario of income inequality suggest that world food demand in 2050 would be 2.7 per cent higher and 5.4 per cent lower than distributional-neutral growth, respectively.
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影响因子：
2
作者：
Denton, FT;Mountain, DC
通讯作者：
Mountain, DC
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
Sala-I-Martin, Xavier
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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