Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak
Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2002616117
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发表时间：
2020-03-31
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Galvani, Alison P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wells, Chad R.;Sah, Pratha;Galvani, Alison P.
中国内地爆发的新型冠状病毒疫情（COVID-19）已迅速蔓延至地球仪。自2019年12月31日首次报告疫情以来的两个月内，其他26个国家共确认了566例严重急性呼吸系统综合征（SARS CoV-2）病例。中国和其他国家已实施旅行限制和边境控制措施，以限制疫情的传播。我们估计这些控制措施的影响，并调查机场旅行网络对COVID-19疫情全球传播的作用。我们的研究结果显示，2020年1月13日，通过国际旅行从中国大陆输出至少一例SARS CoV-2病例的每日风险超过95%。我们发现，到2020年2月15日，在没有任何边境或旅行限制的情况下，779例病例（95%CI：632至967）将被出口，中国政府实施的旅行封锁避免了70.5%（95%CI：68.8%至72.0%）的病例。此外，在实施的前三个半星期，旅行限制使每日出口率平均下降了81.3%（95% CI：80.5%至82.1%）。在疫情的早期阶段，减少输出率可能会延迟病例输入未受COVID-19爆发影响的城市，为协调适当的公共卫生应对赢得时间。
The novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) in mainland China has rapidly spread across the globe. Within 2 mo since the outbreak was first reported on December 31, 2019, a total of 566 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS CoV-2) cases have been confirmed in 26 other countries. Travel restrictions and border control measures have been enforced in China and other countries to limit the spread of the outbreak. We estimate the impact of these control measures and investigate the role of the airport travel network on the global spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. Our results show that the daily risk of exporting at least a single SARS CoV-2 case from mainland China via international travel exceeded 95% on January 13, 2020. We found that 779 cases (95% CI: 632 to 967) would have been exported by February 15, 2020 without any border or travel restrictions and that the travel lockdowns enforced by the Chinese government averted 70.5% (95% CI: 68.8 to 72.0%) of these cases. In addition, during the first three and a half weeks of implementation, the travel restrictions decreased the daily rate of exportation by 81.3% (95% CI: 80.5 to 82.1%), on average. At this early stage of the epidemic, reduction in the rate of exportation could delay the importation of cases into cities unaffected by the COVID-19 outbreak, buying time to coordinate an appropriate public health response.