Assessment of bioenergy potential and associated costs in Japan for the 21st century
Assessment of bioenergy potential and associated costs in Japan for the 21st century
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日本 21 世纪生物能源潜力及相关成本评估
DOI：
10.1016/j.renene.2020.08.015
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
Oshiro Ken
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wu Wenchao;Hasegawa Tomoko;Fujimori Shinichiro;Takahashi Kiyoshi;Oshiro Ken
生物能源可以为日本的长期缓解战略和能源供应发挥重要作用，但对日本国内生物能源供应能力的了解有限。在这里，我们估计了日本在本世纪技术和经济上可行的生物能源潜力。我们使用了一个涵盖各种原料的综合评估框架，采用网格化的高分辨率土地利用模型，并考虑了人口和耕地需求的变化。我们的研究结果表明，到21世纪，日本的技术生物能源总量可达3.43 EJ/年至3.78 EJ/年，占该国目前一次能源供应的17.3% - 19.1%。在原料中，专用生物能源作物将是最大的贡献者，由于废弃土地的可用性不断增加，到2050年和2100年将分别提供1.34 EJ/年和1.61 EJ/年。成本分析显示，陆基原料的技术潜力约有一半可以以5美元/吉焦的价格生产。潜力图显示，陆上生物质供应主要分布在日本东北部、中部和南部。我们的评估表明，生物能源对日本能源供应和二氧化碳减排的贡献可能比之前预期的要大。与目前以进口为导向的发展战略不同，日本国内的原料供应可以自给自足。
Bioenergy could play an important role for Japan’s long-term mitigation strategy and energy supply but understanding of Japan’s domestic bioenergy supply capacity is limited. Here, we estimated Japan’s technical and economically feasible bioenergy potential throughout this century. We used an integrated assessment framework covering various feedstocks, with a gridded high-resolution land-use model and consideration of changes in population and cropland demand. Our results suggest that Japan’s total technical bioenergy could be 3.43 EJ/year to 3.78 EJ/year in the 21st century—17.3%–19.1% of the country’s current primary energy supply. Among feedstocks, dedicated bioenergy crops would be the greatest contributors, supplying 1.34 EJ/year in 2050 and 1.61 EJ/year in 2100, owing to the increasing availability of abandoned land. Cost analysis revealed that about half the technical potential of land-based feedstocks could be produced at 5 USD/GJ. Potential maps showed that land-based biomass supply was located mainly in northeast, central, and southern Japan. Our assessment suggests that the bioenergy contribution to Japan’s energy supply and CO2emission reduction could be larger than previously expected. Unlike under the current import-oriented development strategy, Japan’s domestic feedstock supply could be self-sufficient.