Effect of Cost Reduction in Power Sources on Large-Scale Penetration of Wind and Solar Power in Hokkaido
Effect of Cost Reduction in Power Sources on Large-Scale Penetration of Wind and Solar Power in Hokkaido
复制标题
电源成本降低对北海道风能和太阳能大规模普及的影响
DOI：
10.1109/icgea.2017.7925461
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Chikahisa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Suzuki;N. Takahashi;Y. Tabe;T. Chikahisa
本研究以日本最大、最北端的北海道的电力供应系统为研究对象，确定了将风能和太阳能发电比例提高到100%的障碍。根据目前的技术和成本水平，研究了与风能和太阳能进入能源系统相比，系统总成本的增加。还研究了太阳能和电池成本降低的影响。结果表明，在不显著增加系统总成本的情况下，风能和太阳能的份额可以提高到50%。为实现这一目标，应主要在北部地区安装风力发电，并加强连接北部和首都地区的输电线路。然而，不可再生能源的盈利能力随着风电容量的增加而下降。当可再生能源的份额超过50%时，由于供需差距的扩大，总系统成本迅速增加。降低太阳能发电成本可以在一定程度上降低系统总成本。然而，主要的电力来源仍然是风能，因为风电输出的季节性模式与需求的相关性高于太阳能。
This study focuses on the power supply system of Hokkaido, the largest and northernmost prefecture in Japan and identifies the barriers to raise the share of wind and solar power to 100%. An increase in total system cost versus the penetration of wind and solar power into the energy system was examined based on the current technology and cost level. The effect of cost reductions in solar power and batteries are also investigated. The results show that the share of wind and solar power can be raised to 50% without significant increase in the total system cost. To achieve this, wind power should mainly be installed in the northern area and transmission lines should be enhanced to connect the northern and capital areas. However, the profitability of non-renewable power decreases with increasing wind power capacity. As the share of renewables exceeds 50%, the total system cost rapidly increases because of a widening of the demand-supply gap. Reducing the cost of solar power can reduce the total system cost to some extent. However, the main power source is still wind energy because the seasonal pattern of wind power output is in higher correlation with demand than solar power.